Pre market analysis 7-26-11 Tuesday

Been very busy with work and have been having a tough time trading as a result. Back to my routine with a few changes. I will see how it goes.

News: New home sales @ 10AM , Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) recently ES has pulled back from its big move up and balanced for a few days. We saw initiative buying break the balance area above the 1325s area. Thursday and Friday balanced in a range and Monday balanced in that area as well. Value shifted lower Monday and the sellers closed in control at lower value area and the vpoc at 1333.50. Globex initially moved lower testing the lows of Monday at 1326.75 and has bounced back above the 1333 area cvpoc. The buyers need to see this market above the 1333-1335 area to maintain short term control.

(Trade plan) I have 1333.1335 area as the short term line in the sand and buyers will want to see the market above this level to stay in control. A break below would bring the 25-27 area and globex lows into play. Any pushes below the 25-27 area will likely attract responsive buyers and I'm expecting this area to hold as support on first test. If the market holds above the 33-35 area I'm expecting test of the 1340-1342 area /globex highs and a possible break above to test the clvn area at 1344 and the 1347-1349 level where i expect responsive sellers to be active. Over all buyers are in control above the 33-35 area and i will focus on longs at support for test back up into 41-44-46.50. There are a few news releases out after the open and this could give a catalyst to move and test either area.

Pre market analysis 7-12-11 Tuesday

News: international trade at 8:30AM, FOMC minutes at 2PM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES trade lower and globex has followed through once again. The overnight session was volatile swinging up and down. The market is currently in a DT and trying to find a bottom. And we are floating around the 50% retrace level from the move up and could see some buying come in around here.

(Trade plan) ES has been in a DT with sellers in control yesterday and the globex session as well and the expectation is for resistance areas to hold. We have no news release out after the open except for FOMC minutes at 2 pm and we could likely see a balanced market heading up to the release. With the big up trend over the last week we could be seeing a PB now as we are at the 50% retrace level and buyers may begin to step in if this uptrend is to stay intact. The 1294 area could be the line in the sand for the buyers and they would want to see the market close above that area today. If we break back down into that area then we are likely to see lower prices and the new rally would be void for now. Over all my focus will be on the short side at resistance areas but i will be mind full of buyers getting active and will look for opps to buy good support after i see signs of the market gaining support.

End of day review 7-11-11 Monday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES gapped down on some negative news from EU last night and we saw some follow through to the down side in today’s session. ES opened below value and responsive buyers were active pushing ES back up into the 1324.50-1326.50 level where sellers were active pushing ES down into the globex lows area where it broke below and we had a small retrace and the selling continued. ES tested the 1315-1317 level that broke at first but then was bought back up pretty quickly. We popped back above that area and found resistance at the vwap and the LVN left from the morning sell off. Sellers pushed back down making new lows. ES had a small bounce back up to the DTL and the 1317.25 intraday level that formed. Sellers were active pushing ES down to new lows once again. The market went into chop mode and the selling shut off at the 1310.75-1312.50 level where buyers closed the market back up into the IBL. Value shifted lower and the VPOC was established at 1315. Sellers are in control at the moment.

(Trade plan) I was expecting a mostly balanced session today and we somewhat trended lower instead. It wasn’t a big trend day but still lower highs and lower lows make a trend down day. The sellers were able to keep the market below the 1328 area that I outlined in the AM. Buyers were active at the support areas below on the way down as I expected.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: Type of Set up: Break and retrace.

(Technical) The sellers were in control in the globex session and we got the break and retrace to go with the trend move from the O/N session.

(Corrections) Im struggling with holding for extended targets right now or taking profits at reasonable areas. I know I need more points but I still think that consistency is more important.

(Emotional) Felt good taking this trade. I liked the set up.

(Execution Grade) B- I was a little early.

(BSO Points) 2.5

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: Like I said above I think it important for me to stick with taking my first profit targets instead of trying to get the Hollywood trade every time. I think its better while im on less than 5 lots. If I were on 5 lots I would exit 3 lots for the 2-3 points and go for extended targets with the last 2 lots.

BSO Points for the day: 2.5

Winners: 1

Losers: 0

Scratches: 0

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Emotions in check: A

Pre market analysis 7-11-11 Monday

News: No news release today

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Last week Es mostly saw range bound trade. The NFP gave the market a big down day in the premarket release and the day session balanced with buyers in control closing the market on the highs. On the daily chart we could see a little bit of a PB to find more buyers. Globex session has traded lower showing that the sellers are getting more active.

(Trade plan) Sellers have started stepping in to the market in the overnight session but we are still inside the recent balance area that has formed at these highs. With no news release the expectation today is for a balanced session with buyers and sellers active at the S/R levels. The sellers want to see the market below the 1328-1330 level to remain in control. Im looking at this little bit of selling as a PB in the bigger move up and expect buyers to be active at each support area below. 1305 is the 50% retrace of the big move up and i expect buyers active there as well.

End of day review 7-6-11 Wednesday

Pre market analysis 7-6-11 Wednesday

News: ISM non Mfg @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) ES has had a big up move last week and yesterday saw ES consolidate at the highs of the up move. Globex has traded to the highs of the swing area from the end of may at 1340.75 area where responsive sellers were active pushing Es quickly down to test the lows of yesterday at 1328s area. buyers were active stopping the down move but not moving the market higher.

(Trade plan) We have ISM at 10 AM and we could see the market balance before that release. With the market consolidating at the highs of the move up it shows the buyers are still in control. We can see some sellers getting active in globex session and we may see some selling today. But with buyers in control i expect any dips to be bought as buyers try and maintain control. Im expecting a mostly balanced session today depending on the news release. My focus will be mostly on the long side and i will look for short set ups as the market shows its hand. I will also watch the open swing to gauge the control off the open. Short term bias is 1328.00.

End of day review 7-6-11 Wednesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES balanced inside the recent range with the buyers still in control. The market opened and we ranged off the open as the market waited for the news release at 10AM. After the release we drove down but with the lack of conviction in the market the area below the globex lows was rejected and buyers came in quickly to push the market back up. We had a small PB into the 1328-1330 area that acted as a spring board for buyers to reload and take the market back up into the top of the range at the 1335.75-1337.00 area where responsive sellers were active. Es rotated back to the IBH area and the intraday support that formed at 1332. We chopped the rest of the afternoon and into the close. Value built out with acceptance at 1334.50 and buyers in control closing at the highs of the day.

(Trade plan) The market balanced before the news release as expected. The sellers were active in the morning as i was expecting to see some selling today and i was also expecting the buyers to buy the dips to maintain control and that's what we got above the bias level i outlined this morning (1328).

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: Type of Set up: PB into support

(Technical)We traded above the IBH and the buyers were in control. So i took a long at the 38% retrace and the IBH area. Trade resulted in a BE because market missed my target by 1 tick. By the time i got back it was only up 1.5 points so i let it ride.

(Corrections) Looked good to me.

(Emotional) I felt confident about this trade. Except for the fact i had to go out side.

(Execution Grade) B was a tad early

(BSO Points) BE

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: My biggest issue is not being around for the opps that the market is giving me. Whether the opps that i see are good trades or losers is not relevant. Because if i take a trade and i get stopped out i don't have the opp to break it down and see what i did wrong so i can learn from it.

BSO Points for the day: Flat

Winners: 0

Losers: 0

Scratches: 1

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Emotions in check: A