End of the day review 3-31-11 Thursday

Ok so ES balanced in a range all day which was expected with NFP out tomorrow. We stayed between the pre market support and resistance levels all day so good job on the levels today. im still expecting globex to balance as well.

   I had 2 trades today 1 st was a short this morning at around 1325 off of trend line and globex highs area. 2 nd i scratched to early because i talked myself out of it. Something i need to work on. When im in a trade i need to understand the context and the probabilities of the trade. And if i agree with them then i need to allow the trade to pan out. If it doesn't look good then get out.

Pre market analysis 3-31-11 Thursday

News: Jobless claims @ 8:30 AM, Chicago PMI @ 9:45AM, Factory orders @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: We had a bearish candle at strong resistance yesterday. ES could be getting a little over extended up here and we may see a pull back. Volume has been dropping off as we move up as well.

Trade plan: ES gapped up and found support then traded higher throughout the day building acceptance at 1325.50. We are at a critical level for ES and it's a place where responsive sellers could step in. We have nonfarm payrolls tomorrow so we could get a balanced session heading into that report tomorrow. With that being said I will be looking for selling and buying opps at the levels on 30 chart. Globex traded in a small range heading into this morning open. We traded down to 1321.75 cvpoc and then back up to 1325.75 building acceptance at 1323.50. I have pre market resistance at 1325.50-1327.50 which is a key level and i expect responsive sellers to be active there. If we break above that there is strong initial resistance above at 1329.50-1331.50 and 1332.50-1334.00 and then the highs of the year. If we break above i expect the buying to shut off at the 1332-1334 area so i will be looking for selling opps at each level above. For the down side i have pre market support at 1319.50-1321.50 where i expect buyers to still be active. Below that i have initial support at 1317.50-1318.50 and then strong support at 1314.50-1316.00. If we start to sell off with momentum then i will less likely to take longs at the support areas and looking for momentum break and retrace trades as long as there is strong momentum in the market.

End of day review 3-30-11 Wednesday

Es gaped up and found support again and went higher for the majority of the day. There was one good opp at lunch time that i missed at 1325 area after breaking above the 1324-1325 level. I didn't have the 1319.50 level on my chart so i wasn't looking at it as an opp to get long there. My concentration was on the long side around 1318 area but price never got there so i sat back and waited. Over all we built value higher but we are at the edge of bigger value and we could see longer term sellers step in here to take it down. I will review after globex session tomorrow morning. And i will do my levels tonight to see where i want to trade.

Pre market analysis 3-30-11 Wednesday

News: Nothing major out today

Daily chart notes: ES has been trending up with small pullbacks

Trade plan: ES regained all the losses it had on Tuesday and added some more. Above the 1309-1311 level I'm expecting more upside over the next few days. We still have resistance levels above that are pretty strong and with ES extended up so much over the past few sessions I'm expecting a breather and a balanced session today. Globex put in a low at support level 1313-1315 and has been trending higher most of the night with the 1325-1327 area stopping the buying. We built acceptance at 1321.50.  I have pre market support at 13201-1322 and also at 1317-1318.50 and 1313-1315 where i expect buyers to be active. Initial support comes in around 1309.50-1311 which is a key area with the cvpoc being there. With the bullish context i will be looking for longs at support areas on pullbacks. I will be looking for short opps depending on what type of day unfolds.

End of day review 3-29-11 Tuesday

ES opened and tested the 1299-1300 area before the figure release so i wasn't interested in getting long in front of the econ number. The number was out worse than expected and Es started to take off to the upside and pulled back to the 1304.75-1305.75 level i had  which would have been a good long trade but i was short at globex highs and wasnt thinking to get long I ended up scratching when it came back up. after that it was a slow grind higher and no opps to get long on any pullbacks so i sat out rest of the day. With ES back above the 1309-1311 level my expectation is for new highs over the next few days. I will wait and see what globex does and go from there in the morning.

Pre market analysis 3-29-11 Tuesday

News: Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: The daily chart saw a little selling but no real damage to the uptrend from the lows. Something to take note of is that we hit the bigger down trend line from the highs.

Trade plan: ES has been trending higher and the sold off yesterday late in the trading session. Globex has traded back up into resistance at 1307.50 and rotated back down to the lows of yesterday at 1301.75 building acceptance at 1304.25. Globex seems to be balanced for now. We have pre market resistance at 1308.25 and a break above that will bring the initial resistance area at 1309.50-1311 level into play where we could find responsive sellers active being that it's the major CVPOC. A break above that area would be a caution for sellers and i will not so aggressive on the short side as we could get some more upside trading. I will look more for shorts around 1320-1321 area. For the down side i expect buyers to still be active at the support levels laid out below. We have pre market support at 1301.50 and initial support at 1299-1301 where i expect buyers to be active. Below that we could get a quick move down to 1295-1296 and the 1291-1293 where i still expect buyers to be active.