Pre market analysis 7-6-11 Wednesday
News: ISM non Mfg @ 10AM
Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) ES has had a big up move last week and yesterday saw ES consolidate at the highs of the up move. Globex has traded to the highs of the swing area from the end of may at 1340.75 area where responsive sellers were active pushing Es quickly down to test the lows of yesterday at 1328s area. buyers were active stopping the down move but not moving the market higher.
(Trade plan) We have ISM at 10 AM and we could see the market balance before that release. With the market consolidating at the highs of the move up it shows the buyers are still in control. We can see some sellers getting active in globex session and we may see some selling today. But with buyers in control i expect any dips to be bought as buyers try and maintain control. Im expecting a mostly balanced session today depending on the news release. My focus will be mostly on the long side and i will look for short set ups as the market shows its hand. I will also watch the open swing to gauge the control off the open. Short term bias is 1328.00.
End of day review 7-6-11 Wednesday
Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES balanced inside the recent range with the buyers still in control. The market opened and we ranged off the open as the market waited for the news release at 10AM. After the release we drove down but with the lack of conviction in the market the area below the globex lows was rejected and buyers came in quickly to push the market back up. We had a small PB into the 1328-1330 area that acted as a spring board for buyers to reload and take the market back up into the top of the range at the 1335.75-1337.00 area where responsive sellers were active. Es rotated back to the IBH area and the intraday support that formed at 1332. We chopped the rest of the afternoon and into the close. Value built out with acceptance at 1334.50 and buyers in control closing at the highs of the day.
(Trade plan) The market balanced before the news release as expected. The sellers were active in the morning as i was expecting to see some selling today and i was also expecting the buyers to buy the dips to maintain control and that's what we got above the bias level i outlined this morning (1328).
Trades review: (Hypothetical)
(Actual)
1st trade: Type of Set up: PB into support
(Technical)We traded above the IBH and the buyers were in control. So i took a long at the 38% retrace and the IBH area. Trade resulted in a BE because market missed my target by 1 tick. By the time i got back it was only up 1.5 points so i let it ride.
(Corrections) Looked good to me.
(Emotional) I felt confident about this trade. Except for the fact i had to go out side.
(Execution Grade) B was a tad early
(BSO Points) BE
Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: My biggest issue is not being around for the opps that the market is giving me. Whether the opps that i see are good trades or losers is not relevant. Because if i take a trade and i get stopped out i don't have the opp to break it down and see what i did wrong so i can learn from it.
BSO Points for the day: Flat
Winners: 0
Losers: 0
Scratches: 1
Grades for the day:
Following my plans: A
Following my rules: A
Emotions in check: A
