Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Trading my plan and planning my trades

   Over the past few months since i started this blog/journal i have been realizing a few things. Like the need to have a routine, morning trade plan, and record keeping ETC.. And all has been going well with them issues. But i never really realized the importance of having a developing trade plan that guides me throughout the day as the market unfolds. I think i am starting to understand another one of them well known market axioms "Trade your plan and plan your trade" I started doing planning in the morning by typing up a trade plan for the day but that's where it stopped. I never continued into the day. Although since I have started my morning trade plan i don't know how i ever tried to trade without it before. And i am starting to realize that i don't know how i have been able to place a trade without ever doing a developing trade plan throughout the day. Since i have been doing the morning analysis and trade plan i have been noticing a change in my market approach and can see myself develop over this time by having this routine. I can only assume that if i do a developing trade plan throughout the day that it will help me to better understand the market as it unfolds. I have heard other traders say they can read the market like a book. I don't read the markets like a book lol. So how can i try and trade the market when i cant even read the price action that is unfolding in front of me? How do other traders seem to have a crystal ball and know what is going to happen next and be in position for it? How is it that experienced traders are exiting a trade when amateurs are just getting in? This is all because they have a plan and i don't. I was thinking back to when i traded with a good consistent trader, and i realized this is exactly what he was doing. He always knew where he was gonna trade and wouldn't do anything unless the market got to that area that he would have predetermined. I remember asking him once "You always know where you want to trade?" and his response was absolutely! He even would make comments to his "Master plan" Which i realize now was what he had in mind for the bigger picture.
    So what i am doing to get over this and other issues i have is im keeping a journal of just market action and laying out trade ideas based on what i see unfolding on the charts. I will come up with trade ideas and try to figure out how i would trade them. I have been doing this the past two days and it is a little difficult at first. I really believe it is helping me to come up with trade ideas and identifying where i want to trade before the market gets to an area i want to trade as opposed to being passive and reacting when the market is ticking in my area. Because then there isn't enough time to analyze what is taking place. Bottom line is i am not planning out my trades before hand and this will simply not do. I wouldn't go into battle or try and build a house without having plans would I? Then why am i doing it while trading. Time for changes!!!

End of day review 4-12-11 Tuesday

Let's just say that my trading didn't go as planned today lol. I took a few trades that were completely not part of my plan that didn't work out and i took a few that were part of my developing plan that didn't work out as well. Not a good day for me but i did learn a few good lessons. I keep breaking my rules for one. So i have been keeping track of my rule breaking and will keep trading tomorrow according to my rules. One rule i keep breaking that just stands out to me is "Don't guess what the market is trying to do, Let the charts tell me." I keep trying to guess. For example: If the market bounces off a level and moves higher then i won't be looking to take a short at my resistance level because i say something to myself like " We bounced so that means the market must be going higher" and i won't take a short at my level as opposed to just having a plan and sticking to it. Like today i would have sold the bounce back into the 1311.00 level after it broke down below it. This is a serious issue i have to work on and i have just started noticing it the past few sessions. I will do a separate post on this.


Pre market analysis 4-12-11 Tuesday


News: International trade @ 8:30AM, Treasury Budget @ 2PM
Trade plan: ES recently has been in a range and yesterdays action saw ES break the lows of that range. We have been sliding lower over the past few session with value expanding wider. Globex has traded down to strong support at 1310-1312 and bounced there building out value and acceptance at 1312.50 which is the CVPOC as well. It seems that sellers have taken control over night and i need to see if they can manage after the open. My focus will be on the short side today and i will be looking to sell any rallies into resistance areas. I have pre market resistance at 1314.50-1316.50 and will be looking to sell here on first test. If sellers are to remain in control then this is the area where they need to step in. If we break above that it could be a red flag for sellers and a test of the 1319.50-1321.00 2nd pre market resistance area and globex highs will come into play. A break above that and buyers will regain control and i will be more cautious on shorting the initial resistance area up there. In the case of accelerated down side trade I will look for opps to join the move by taking a quick retrace trade otherwise shorts are risky down here. As for playing longs im not to eager to get long today until i see some reasons that the market is being supported at a strong level. The 1310-1312 Is a strong support area and is also pre market support on my chart we could get a bounce here if buyers are to try and regain any lost ground today below that we could get a quick move lower so im not looking for any longs really. We will be gapping down today below value so responsive buyer could be active at this area when we open. Or we could get an imitating move lower. Gap and go type open. Over all i will monitor the open swing to gauge how is in control.