End of day Review 1-28-11 Friday

Well as expected the market sold off in a hard way. I had the expectation of a complete rotation to test the lows of the week at 1278 area because of the neutral weekly IB (see Thursday 1-27-11 end of day review post) . We have been trading around the top of this range most of the week and we were building out value for a few session so i was expecting a break out but GDP wasn't that great and i think that's what the market was waiting for. Consumer sentiment came out a little better than expected and the market reacted well at first trying to make new highs and there was no initiative activity above the range highs so this was the golden ticket that the market was waiting for. Then the responsive sellers were more than willing to sell the crap out of it giving us a clean long liquidation type day closing at the low tick of the day.

1st Trade I took this trade on the back of the momentum that was entering the market. I wanted to sell higher up at 1294 area which was an area of small support that turned into resistance on the break but i was pulled away due to having a full time job. So when i got back to my seat i saw the market down another 6 points and break globex lows where i got short i had first target at 1286.75 for 3 points and second at 1283 for 6 points. But the market started bouncing and i had to go outside to check on something so bailed for 3 on the second one. Damn i wish i held it longer LOL. All kidding aside 1278 the 1275 were the real targets i had in the back of my mind and both were hit without a problem. As i get to increase my size i will be able to target take off a couple for 2 or 3 points and have extended targets for the rest. Because i know that one of the keys to trading is to maximize your profits. Remember the old saying "let your winners run and cut your losses short" well that is so true and it is crystal clear today.

2nd trade: I took this trade after ES made it low for the day. And i remember Kevin taught me that you don't want to go long after and big trend down until you se the market chop around for a while indicating a change in trend. That along with a few other things is what got me long for 2 points. My target was 4 points at 1278 which market hit my order but didn't fill so i locked in 2 and moved on.

Pre Market Analysis 1-28-11 Friday :-)

News: GDP @ 8:30AM, Employment cost index @ 8:30AM, And Consumer confidence @ 9:55 AM Daily chart notes: Pretty much the same as all this week. Been trading at the top of the balance area and started hanging around there for a few sessions.

MP Notes: Same as all this week really. We have been building out value at the top of the range and like i said yesterday the longer we spend up here the stronger the case gets for the bulls.

Trade plan: With GDP out today at 8:30AM and Consumer confidence at 9:55AM we need to let these figures hit the market and see how the market reacts to them. A bullish reaction and ES could trade above the recent range and the uptrend will continue in which case i will wait for a retest of the recent balance area to look for longs. We have to wait for the market to establish a little value above a level before looking to join the move. General rule of thumb is if it is a daily level give it one day, 60 min level 60 minutes, 30 or 15 minute level give it 30 or 15 minutes to establish some value. This is something Kev taught me and it keeps me out of a lot of false breaks. If the market keeps steaming forward then i will look to be a responsive seller above value around the resistance areas at 1299 - 1300 and 1303-1305 area. If ES rejects the break out i will look to be a seller back in the range. I will let the market confirm the rejection by waiting for it to trade back into the range then look to catch a pullback to go with the move lower. In the back of my mind i will keep the weekly neutral IB  and expect a retest of the lows of the week. Patience is key... 

Sunrise and Friday

Im really glad i live so close to the beach. I have l lived close to the beach my entire life and never really appreciated it as much as i do know that im a little bit older. Often i get up before dawn and will go sit at the beach to clear my head of all the little chatter thats going on inside and watch the sunrise and just give thanks for being alive and being able to enjoy all the things we always take for granted. Concentrating so hard on a challenge will often get you off course and you will start to tip the balance of life in the wrong direction. this is important for you to realize and do what is necessary to regain your internal balance and put priority on the things that really matter in life.