No post today, feeling sick.

Started to not feel to well over the weekend so decided not to trade today cause my mind isn't clear. So no post today hopefully will feel better tomorrow and back to my routine. Being sick today makes me realize a few things when it comes to trading. You have to be Physically, mentally, and spiritually fit to trade. Waking up every day and sitting behind a computer all day long will tear your body and mind to shreds. So i have decided that im gonna put my self on a health plan. Nothing drastic, something easy with small obtainable goals to help me reach my bigger goal. Just some lite cardio a few times a week a long with meditating at least 30 minutes a day to help shut the chatter off in my mind (and i have a lot lol). Im generally in good shape not over weight and i eat good and i try to stay active as much as possible. I haven't been sleeping to well over the last week because of getting up so early to be at work to have all my analysis done before 8:00AM.  So i will make sure i get plenty of sleep this week. I feel these are necessary things that a trader must do in order to really have control over you mind. And to help with the learning process.

End of day Review 1-28-11 Friday

Well as expected the market sold off in a hard way. I had the expectation of a complete rotation to test the lows of the week at 1278 area because of the neutral weekly IB (see Thursday 1-27-11 end of day review post) . We have been trading around the top of this range most of the week and we were building out value for a few session so i was expecting a break out but GDP wasn't that great and i think that's what the market was waiting for. Consumer sentiment came out a little better than expected and the market reacted well at first trying to make new highs and there was no initiative activity above the range highs so this was the golden ticket that the market was waiting for. Then the responsive sellers were more than willing to sell the crap out of it giving us a clean long liquidation type day closing at the low tick of the day.

1st Trade I took this trade on the back of the momentum that was entering the market. I wanted to sell higher up at 1294 area which was an area of small support that turned into resistance on the break but i was pulled away due to having a full time job. So when i got back to my seat i saw the market down another 6 points and break globex lows where i got short i had first target at 1286.75 for 3 points and second at 1283 for 6 points. But the market started bouncing and i had to go outside to check on something so bailed for 3 on the second one. Damn i wish i held it longer LOL. All kidding aside 1278 the 1275 were the real targets i had in the back of my mind and both were hit without a problem. As i get to increase my size i will be able to target take off a couple for 2 or 3 points and have extended targets for the rest. Because i know that one of the keys to trading is to maximize your profits. Remember the old saying "let your winners run and cut your losses short" well that is so true and it is crystal clear today.

2nd trade: I took this trade after ES made it low for the day. And i remember Kevin taught me that you don't want to go long after and big trend down until you se the market chop around for a while indicating a change in trend. That along with a few other things is what got me long for 2 points. My target was 4 points at 1278 which market hit my order but didn't fill so i locked in 2 and moved on.

Pre Market Analysis 1-28-11 Friday :-)

News: GDP @ 8:30AM, Employment cost index @ 8:30AM, And Consumer confidence @ 9:55 AM Daily chart notes: Pretty much the same as all this week. Been trading at the top of the balance area and started hanging around there for a few sessions.

MP Notes: Same as all this week really. We have been building out value at the top of the range and like i said yesterday the longer we spend up here the stronger the case gets for the bulls.

Trade plan: With GDP out today at 8:30AM and Consumer confidence at 9:55AM we need to let these figures hit the market and see how the market reacts to them. A bullish reaction and ES could trade above the recent range and the uptrend will continue in which case i will wait for a retest of the recent balance area to look for longs. We have to wait for the market to establish a little value above a level before looking to join the move. General rule of thumb is if it is a daily level give it one day, 60 min level 60 minutes, 30 or 15 minute level give it 30 or 15 minutes to establish some value. This is something Kev taught me and it keeps me out of a lot of false breaks. If the market keeps steaming forward then i will look to be a responsive seller above value around the resistance areas at 1299 - 1300 and 1303-1305 area. If ES rejects the break out i will look to be a seller back in the range. I will let the market confirm the rejection by waiting for it to trade back into the range then look to catch a pullback to go with the move lower. In the back of my mind i will keep the weekly neutral IB  and expect a retest of the lows of the week. Patience is key... 

Sunrise and Friday

Im really glad i live so close to the beach. I have l lived close to the beach my entire life and never really appreciated it as much as i do know that im a little bit older. Often i get up before dawn and will go sit at the beach to clear my head of all the little chatter thats going on inside and watch the sunrise and just give thanks for being alive and being able to enjoy all the things we always take for granted. Concentrating so hard on a challenge will often get you off course and you will start to tip the balance of life in the wrong direction. this is important for you to realize and do what is necessary to regain your internal balance and put priority on the things that really matter in life.

 

End of day Review 1-27-11 Thursday

With ES trading at the top of the range which is the high of the year as well it made for really choppy session. The context is bullish and ES has been balancing since yesterday session and all day today. ES tried to break out a few times only to be meet with R. sellers. I had 1 trade today and scratched a few minutes to early (See trade 1). Over all ES is still bullish above 1290 area which is the bottom of this little range we are in. A beak of that would be a heads up of a possible move lower to test for more buyers or a possible trend change. We are still working with the balance area of 1296-1268 and have a neutral weekly IB and could see a full rotation tomorrow back down to the lows of the week at the 1278 area.

1St Trade: I took this trade because we are at the top of the balance area and was waiting to see responsive sellers above the range which we got when that figure release came out at 10AM. The market traded above then quickly rejected so i started looking for an entry for a short. I got into the trade and market started chopping and i ended up scratching for break even. In hind sight this was a bad idea because the market ended up going to my target of 3 points pretty quickly. Looking at the order flow on MD i realized that it still looked good and that would have given me the confidence to hold.

Pre Market Analysis 1-27-11 Thursday

News: Durable goods orders @ 8:30AM, Jobless claims @ 8:30AM and Pending home sales @ 10AM

Daily chart notes: ES Daily chart is been in an uptrend and has been balancing lately between 1268-1296 area. ES is currently at the top of the balance area with buyers still in control.

MP Notes: Yesterdays session was mostly neutral with neither the bulls or the bears taking control. We are trading at the top of the balance area with heavy acceptance at 1282 area also we have put in a P shape profile at the top indicating that the market still wants to trade higher. ES closed in the middle of value yesterday showing no real bias for any control. We are neutral on the macro with globex putting in value in the same area as yesterdays value. We also have a neutral weekly IB and we should be expecting support and resistance to hold up.

Trade plan: ES has been trending higher in this recent range and yesterday saw ES try a few times to break out of the highs of the balance area only to be meet with responsive buyers. It also looks as if this area is being accepted and i need to monitor for a possible break out. So the game plan for today is to look for shorting opps around the top of the balance area to trade back into value around globex and yesterdays lows at 1289 and 1288 then down to poc at 1282 area. If we break out above 1296 i want to be a seller above value at the resistance levels above on the 30 chart. On the long side i only will look to buy if ES pulls back to support areas around 1289-1288 and 1285-1287 area a break below that would be a red flag for buyers and a test of VPOC is likely but i may still look for long opps around there as well. It all depends on the price action and how we get there.  A break below 1282 VPOC and i would be really cautious on the long side till we establish some support. As of writing this ES globex is at 1295.50.

End of day review 1-26-11 Wednesday

End of day review 1-26-11 Wednesday

So today was a good day with ES opening and trying to go lower then bouncing up into the highs of the balance area. This is where i got short and traded back down into 50% retrace level which ended up being a good target (see trades chart). Then we had FOMC announcement at 2:15PM and the market was dead leading up to that. So i waited till after the release to put on another trade but couldn't find anything to trade other than selling the top and i dint want to sell their due to the bullish context.

1st Trade: Took a short at the resistance zone which is the top of the balance area 1295-1268. I was expecting responsive sellers to be active up there due to the FOMC announcement at 2:15PM. Responsive sellers did step in and push ES down into a retrace level where i exited for 3 points. Felt good with this trade and was confident holding it for second target. I was patient and waited for the market to tell me when to get short. Most heat i took was 2 ticks.

Pre Market Analysis 1-26-11 Wednesday

News: New home sales@ 10AM, FOMC announcement @ 2:15PM

Daily chart notes: The daily chart is still in an uptrend and has recently pulled back and found support at 1268 area. We are now trading at the high of the current balance area.

MP notes: ES has been in the middle of last week's range of 1268-1295 and is currently trading at the top of that area at 1293 as of writing this. We are putting in a P shape at the top and we need to watch for a break of the level because of this. ES also closed above the value that was established during the session with buyers in control. We also have a neutral weekly IB. And globex value has built above yesterdays value indicating a bullish macro structure.

Trade plan: With FOMC out today im expecting the market to be range bound leading up to that announcement. After the announcement i will watch to see how the market reacts off of the established levels for the day and the premarket levels. With ES trading at the top of the balance area it is a great place for responsive sellers to step in but i will wait to gauge price action at that level when and if it gets there. Buyers are in full control above the 1282 CVPOC and i expect pullbacks into support levels on the 30 min chart to be bought. I will be cautious selling around the top of the range because a break out is highly likely and i will trade risk accordingly. If ES can manage to break below globex lows at 1286 it would be a warning sign of a possible test of the CVPOC below at 1282 area. After 1282 area we have 1278 area below and then 1275 area. Being that we are at the top of the range we could get responsive buyers come in right from the open so i will be looking for that as well.