Tuesday, May 31, 2011

End of day review 5-31-11 Tuesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened above value and sellers were active pushing ES back into Fridays value highs where buyers were active and pushed ES back up into the highs of the day for a full rotation. Price action today was painfully slow and choppy. It was certainly not a good trading environment at least for me. If anyone else saw any opps please let me know where i was wrong at. There was a good long at support at Friday highs and i was at lunch when this happened so no go for me.
(Trade plan) The news releases didn't give any real action today and the big gap up didn't give any good opps as no volatility came from the move higher. I was expecting responsive sellers to be active and they were but they took their sweet ass time doing it. My focus was on the long side today at my support areas and the 1333-1334.50 area was good for a long. I wasn't expecting the market to make it down to the globex lows at 1330, we bounced at the 1333 level. So over all my plan was in line with what took place in the market today.
Trades review: (Hypothetical) Good long opp at 1333.00-1334.50 area. And another good long to join the rotation back up at 1337 double bottom at support.
(Actual)
1st trade: I had one short today at 50% retrace of move down. This was counter to the context. So i wasn't gonna hold it for long in the chop. i was looking for a quick reaction of at least a few points and then was looking to get long at the 50% retrace of the little move higher from the lows. The market only pulled back to the 38% retrace and honestly i couldn't stand the chopping so i went out side. the trade was a BE scratch.
Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: So the market unfolded the way i expected today and i personally didn't see anything worth trading other then the long at support and the PB at 1337. I feel like i did well following my plan and i didn't get to anxious while watching the market chop around. If i were at my computer at lunch time im sure i would have taken the long at 1333s.
Grades:
Following my plans: A
Following my rules: A
Trade execution: C should trade with the context




Pre market analysis 5-31-11 Tuesday

News: Consumer confidence @ 10AM, Chicago PMI @ 9:45AM
Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Last week saw ES gap down and consolidate at the lows of the bigger balance area and the cvpoc at 1310 at the time. Buyers held their ground at cvpoc and tried to put a rally together for a move up. Buyers stepped in on Thursday and pushed ES up into the range, breaking the 3 day balance area we were in. On Friday value established higher above Thursday’s value and vpoc shifted up as well. Buyers are in control at the moment and need to see this market stay above the 1323.50-1325.00 area very short term. A break below that could bring in a quick move down to the 1319-1320 area. Over all im bullish above the cvpoc at 1313.00 and a move below that could bring in more liquidation on the higher time frames. On the daily chart this recent downward consolidation can be viewed as bullish because the daily and weekly have not given any real reason to be bearish yet. I would need to see a break and hold below the 1313 level to shift my midterm bias to bearish. Globex has trended higher all night. Im not quite sure what that about but the buyers are clearly still in control.
(Trade plan) We have a few news releases out after the open that could give some movement after they hit the market. With the big gap up this morning we could see some good opps today. I will be looking for responsive sellers up here as we are opening way above value and ES could try and close the gap. If no sellers are present then we could see ES try and make a move up. My focus will be on the long side into support areas on my 30 min chart. The market is currently trading at 1342 area around the globex highs. I will be looking for support to hold but will be cautious up at these levels as the risk is more on the long side. Below i have the 1336- 1337.50 level i expect buyers to be active there. A break below that will bring Fridays range into play and im expecting buyers there as well. Im not expecting the market to get below the globex lows area and if it does this will be a sign of weakness buy the bulls.