End of day review 1-26-11 Wednesday

End of day review 1-26-11 Wednesday

So today was a good day with ES opening and trying to go lower then bouncing up into the highs of the balance area. This is where i got short and traded back down into 50% retrace level which ended up being a good target (see trades chart). Then we had FOMC announcement at 2:15PM and the market was dead leading up to that. So i waited till after the release to put on another trade but couldn't find anything to trade other than selling the top and i dint want to sell their due to the bullish context.

1st Trade: Took a short at the resistance zone which is the top of the balance area 1295-1268. I was expecting responsive sellers to be active up there due to the FOMC announcement at 2:15PM. Responsive sellers did step in and push ES down into a retrace level where i exited for 3 points. Felt good with this trade and was confident holding it for second target. I was patient and waited for the market to tell me when to get short. Most heat i took was 2 ticks.

Pre Market Analysis 1-26-11 Wednesday

News: New home sales@ 10AM, FOMC announcement @ 2:15PM

Daily chart notes: The daily chart is still in an uptrend and has recently pulled back and found support at 1268 area. We are now trading at the high of the current balance area.

MP notes: ES has been in the middle of last week's range of 1268-1295 and is currently trading at the top of that area at 1293 as of writing this. We are putting in a P shape at the top and we need to watch for a break of the level because of this. ES also closed above the value that was established during the session with buyers in control. We also have a neutral weekly IB. And globex value has built above yesterdays value indicating a bullish macro structure.

Trade plan: With FOMC out today im expecting the market to be range bound leading up to that announcement. After the announcement i will watch to see how the market reacts off of the established levels for the day and the premarket levels. With ES trading at the top of the balance area it is a great place for responsive sellers to step in but i will wait to gauge price action at that level when and if it gets there. Buyers are in full control above the 1282 CVPOC and i expect pullbacks into support levels on the 30 min chart to be bought. I will be cautious selling around the top of the range because a break out is highly likely and i will trade risk accordingly. If ES can manage to break below globex lows at 1286 it would be a warning sign of a possible test of the CVPOC below at 1282 area. After 1282 area we have 1278 area below and then 1275 area. Being that we are at the top of the range we could get responsive buyers come in right from the open so i will be looking for that as well.