Monday, June 20, 2011

End of day review 6-20-11 Monday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) Globex had a bearish structure but the general market wanted higher prices. ES opened at Fridays lows and we tried pushing up into the profile of Friday. Buying came in early in the session telling me that buyers were in control. We pushed up into the MCVPOC at 1266 and had a small PB to the OSH at 1264.25. Buyers were still active and in control on the PB and we had a second push up into the 1268.25-1269.25 level which broke and became support for a 3 rd push breaking the highs and testing the 1271.25-1272.75 level. We broke above the 1272 area and finally stopped at previous day's highs and the 1275.25-1277.00 level on my chart. And went into a chop mode for some time. There were no good opps after touching the previous days highs from what i was able to see.
(Trade plan)I was expecting buyers to be active down here and we got them today. Although they were not very aggressive. I was expecting the market to balance today and after the move up at around 2:00 pm we pretty much balanced for the remainder of the day. We took out globex highs and the market went higher as i was expecting. Over all my morning trade plan was in line with the market but i didnt really follow it. I have to start having more confidence in my morning plan because that is where all the prep work is done for the day.
Trades review: (Hypothetical)
(Actual)
1st trade: Type of Set up: retrace to vpoc
(Technical) The market opened at the lows of previous day, buyers stepped in and the market was having a hard time moving up at the time. So we broke down a little bit and i took a short on the retrace back into the 1266 level. I was up almost 2 points before the market reversed and went back to my entry. I had the feeling that i should have took the BE but i stayed in and was stopped for - 6 ticks
(Emotional) I wasn't to sure about the trade. I think i was more concerned with riding a short down for a rotation instead of reading the market and try and figure out what it is trying to do. With the buying that came in from the open buyers were in control and we are at the lower balance area so short were risky. I should have kept it tight and scratched both for BE instead of one lot.
(Execution Grade) F entry was good but the read was bad. I should have been looking more for longs or did nothing because the market is dead at the moment.
(BSO Points) -1.50 points
2st trade: Type of Set up: reversal trade at resistance
(Technical)The market seemed to have stalled out and was testing my 1272.50 level. Which was a los a 60 min trend line on the higher time frames charts. There was a nice VB div also and a few other things that helped me to take the trade. The market ticked back up above the HOD and stopped me for - 6 ticks. The buyers are still in control and i had no business selling the HOD. I need to tighten it up or this will be a long and miserable week for me.
(Emotional) I liked the trade at first but when it spiked up i didn't like it that much anymore lol. I need to stop selling the top and just be patient. The market is controlled buy the buyers all morning and the context is bullish. So why fight it. Just wait for PBs to get long into.
(Execution Grade) F The entry was good but the trade idea was bad. I needed to put more thought into the trade idea before committing to it.
(BSO Points) -1.5 points
3st trade: Type of Set up: pull back in uptrend
(Technical) Market had been moving up in a nice uptrend all day i had support at 1272.50 area so i bought 1273.00 and was stopped out on a little push down into 1271.50 it took me out right to the 6 tick stop and then began to chop around. We had a previous swing high at 1271.50 so i should have used a 2 point stop and at least i could have gotten out at BE.
(Emotional) I jumped into this trade after getting back to my computer and seeing the market had ticked off a little bit. I was trying to get long with the trend but i should have gave it a few minutes before jumping right in.
(Execution Grade) F perhaps i should have waited for better trade location. At least i was trading with the trend.
(BSO Points) -1.50 points
Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I don't know what happen today with my trading. I wasn't feeling it so i cut back to 1 lot instead of 2 and it was a good call. I still think a lot has to do with work because i always feel like im not ready to trade in the morning after cash open. I need time to get comfortable with my plans and areas to trade for the day. Today went straight up with minor PBs and then the market went to sleep for a while. We only traded 1.4 million contracts today which is a little on the low side. The market seems to be stuck in an over lapping value area that is building out on the daily chart. I think once we get out of this area we will see some better trading. The only question is when will we move out of here. I noticed my morning plan was a good guide for the trading for the day. I need to re-read it before i  start trading for the day to review my expectation on the open.
BSO Points for the day: -4.50 points today
Winners: 0
Losers: 3
Scratches: 0
Grades for the day
Following my plans: C
Following my rules: C
Emotions in check:  D




Pre market analysis 6-20-11 Monday

News: No news release out today.
Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Friday was OPEX and we established value in the lower end of the recent balance area but higher on the past few sessions. Globex has placed value lower down on the fridays session giving a bearish tone to the market this morning. The globex profile is b shaped telling me that the majority of the market likes the lower prices.
(Trade plan) With no news catalyst out today and tomorrow the FOMC meeting begins i am expecting a balanced session to take place. We are in a balance area from 1252.50-1294 area and currently the market is trading at 1258. We area at the bottom of the balance area and the expectation is for responsive buyers to be active down here. With globex lower value i will be cautiously looking for longs at the lows and will be expecting a possible break down. If we do break down then i will look for opps to sell resistance. In the case be move higher the market would need to get above the globex highs level in order for me to look at long opps more aggressively. If ES can manage to trade above and hold the 1262 area i will be expecting higher prices and a break and hold above the globex highs will tell me that the market wants higher prices.