Busy, busy, busy

Work has been busy for me the past few months. I have still been trading and evolving in between work. I am always surprised with the amount of correct info that i learn of as i continue my journey. I thought i "had it" then i would get smacked around a bit and realize i was still missing something. I have revisited some books that i read a while back to refresh myself of the things that i thought i knew. I have been tweaking my approach to the markets as i learn that what i was doing didnt work. i still use the same methodology but just use it in a different way.
 My morning trade plan has become more concise and actionable as opposed to just stating the obvious. I feel as if im getting a better read on the market day after day. Its really tough to self coach because you have to be on your toes and realize when you have done something wrong either with your mindset or strategy. And you have to be willing to make the necessary adjustments in order to continue your development. I have certainly realized the trap of thinking that by starring at the charts all day is constructive learning when i fact all i was doing was just that ,starring at the charts and waiting. So i continue to march forward...

Pre market analysis 8-4-11 Thursday

News: jobless claims @ 8:30AM,

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Trade plan) Yesterday ES had a reversal day. We traded down below the march swing lows and buyers were active pushing ES back above. Buyers stayed in control for the remainder of the day and closing on the highs. Globex traded up into 64.25 resistance area and trended lower throughout the night and bounced at 1240.50 which was HVN and LVA on yesterday session. Buyers were active there and ES bounced and is currently at 1246.50 and moving higher. The expectation for today is for responsive buyers to be active at support and push ES back up into the weekly range. Im also expecting sellers to be active at resistance areas but favor the buyers. Sentiment is still bearish so i will be cautious on the long side as we may get follow through to the down side if we stay below the 64-66 area. A break above that area would confirm buyers in control. The main catalyst today is the jobless claims then NFP tomorrow. We may not see to much action today as the market will wait for the NFP numbers. But given the recent volatility it could still be very whippy action.

Pre market analysis 8-3-11 Wednesday

Trying to get into my routine...

News: ADP employment report @ 8:30AM, factory orders @ 10AM, ISM non Mfg orders @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Trade plan) Globex stayed in a small range most of the night and popped back up above the 1252.25 previous swing low from the balance area. Es traded up to 1257 resistance and rotated back down to the 1252 area and is currently in that small range. Sellers are in control and the expectation is for them to be active on any push up into resistance. I have 57-59 area a break above that will bring the 65-67 (strong area) area into play a break above that would signal buyer strength and shift short term control back to the buyers. Then the 1270 nvpoc from yesterday. On the down side i have 1243 where globex lows stopped at and 1235-1237 area. We could see buyers active there except for a news release that is really bearish. Over all we are at some previous swing low areas and the sellers will either keep pushing down or the buyers will step in hard and move the market back up into value. I will look for shorts at resistance and possible longs at support after i see signs of sellers exhausting at support. This HS neckline break could be a fake out and i will need to see follow through today from the sellers in order to validate the pattern.

Pre market analysis 7-26-11 Tuesday

Been very busy with work and have been having a tough time trading as a result. Back to my routine with a few changes. I will see how it goes.

News: New home sales @ 10AM , Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) recently ES has pulled back from its big move up and balanced for a few days. We saw initiative buying break the balance area above the 1325s area. Thursday and Friday balanced in a range and Monday balanced in that area as well. Value shifted lower Monday and the sellers closed in control at lower value area and the vpoc at 1333.50. Globex initially moved lower testing the lows of Monday at 1326.75 and has bounced back above the 1333 area cvpoc. The buyers need to see this market above the 1333-1335 area to maintain short term control.

(Trade plan) I have 1333.1335 area as the short term line in the sand and buyers will want to see the market above this level to stay in control. A break below would bring the 25-27 area and globex lows into play. Any pushes below the 25-27 area will likely attract responsive buyers and I'm expecting this area to hold as support on first test. If the market holds above the 33-35 area I'm expecting test of the 1340-1342 area /globex highs and a possible break above to test the clvn area at 1344 and the 1347-1349 level where i expect responsive sellers to be active. Over all buyers are in control above the 33-35 area and i will focus on longs at support for test back up into 41-44-46.50. There are a few news releases out after the open and this could give a catalyst to move and test either area.

Pre market analysis 7-12-11 Tuesday

News: international trade at 8:30AM, FOMC minutes at 2PM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES trade lower and globex has followed through once again. The overnight session was volatile swinging up and down. The market is currently in a DT and trying to find a bottom. And we are floating around the 50% retrace level from the move up and could see some buying come in around here.

(Trade plan) ES has been in a DT with sellers in control yesterday and the globex session as well and the expectation is for resistance areas to hold. We have no news release out after the open except for FOMC minutes at 2 pm and we could likely see a balanced market heading up to the release. With the big up trend over the last week we could be seeing a PB now as we are at the 50% retrace level and buyers may begin to step in if this uptrend is to stay intact. The 1294 area could be the line in the sand for the buyers and they would want to see the market close above that area today. If we break back down into that area then we are likely to see lower prices and the new rally would be void for now. Over all my focus will be on the short side at resistance areas but i will be mind full of buyers getting active and will look for opps to buy good support after i see signs of the market gaining support.

End of day review 7-11-11 Monday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES gapped down on some negative news from EU last night and we saw some follow through to the down side in today’s session. ES opened below value and responsive buyers were active pushing ES back up into the 1324.50-1326.50 level where sellers were active pushing ES down into the globex lows area where it broke below and we had a small retrace and the selling continued. ES tested the 1315-1317 level that broke at first but then was bought back up pretty quickly. We popped back above that area and found resistance at the vwap and the LVN left from the morning sell off. Sellers pushed back down making new lows. ES had a small bounce back up to the DTL and the 1317.25 intraday level that formed. Sellers were active pushing ES down to new lows once again. The market went into chop mode and the selling shut off at the 1310.75-1312.50 level where buyers closed the market back up into the IBL. Value shifted lower and the VPOC was established at 1315. Sellers are in control at the moment.

(Trade plan) I was expecting a mostly balanced session today and we somewhat trended lower instead. It wasn’t a big trend day but still lower highs and lower lows make a trend down day. The sellers were able to keep the market below the 1328 area that I outlined in the AM. Buyers were active at the support areas below on the way down as I expected.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: Type of Set up: Break and retrace.

(Technical) The sellers were in control in the globex session and we got the break and retrace to go with the trend move from the O/N session.

(Corrections) Im struggling with holding for extended targets right now or taking profits at reasonable areas. I know I need more points but I still think that consistency is more important.

(Emotional) Felt good taking this trade. I liked the set up.

(Execution Grade) B- I was a little early.

(BSO Points) 2.5

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: Like I said above I think it important for me to stick with taking my first profit targets instead of trying to get the Hollywood trade every time. I think its better while im on less than 5 lots. If I were on 5 lots I would exit 3 lots for the 2-3 points and go for extended targets with the last 2 lots.

BSO Points for the day: 2.5

Winners: 1

Losers: 0

Scratches: 0

Grades for the day:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Emotions in check: A