Thursday, June 2, 2011

End of day review 6-2-11 Thursday

Im going to try and get these out quicker but some time its hard with the job and all. So some times i have to do it at home and then i still find it hard to find the time.
Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened at the lows of yesterday range and the price action was pretty jumpy for the first hour. We traded down to the 1307-1309 level of support and bounced from there back up to the 1317 area then pulled back into the 50% retrace and went for a stab at the IBH. Sellers were active there and we got the full rotation back down breaking IBL and testing the 1305.50 level where buyers were active. After a few small rotation ES broke back above the IBL and buyer were active on any PBs as they tried to push back up into the IBH. Sellers were still active and we rotated back down
 (Trade plan) I was expecting a balanced session today after the big move down and the NFP number tomorrow. So my plan was pretty much right on with the markets action today. We balanced mostly in the IB.
Trades review: (Hypothetical) See 5 min chart with black circles
(Actual)
1st trade: (Technical) I tried to get long here on a FB of the previous day’s lows. We popped back above the level and I got long and was quickly stopped out for – 6 ticks. A short here would have been better. After it broke down it retraced up to that area where I had a level, so selling 12.25 was the ticket.
(Emotional) I felt like I was trying too hard on this trade because I clearly jumped the gun and tried to get long. I was obviously trading with fear of missing out here.
(Grade) F-
2nd trade: (Technical) This time I got short on the move back up into that same level and I took a scratch because price wasn’t acting correct for me. Good call because I would have been stopped out.
(Emotional) I think on this one I was better on executing and I was quick to scratch and both were the correct thing to do. I forgot why exactly I scratch. Tomorrow I’m going to keep better per trade records throughout the day so when I review at the end of the day I’m not drawing a blank.
(Grade) B-
3rd Trade: (Technical) On this trade I took a little break on the loser this morning and got my head straight. I walked through the set up with my friends in the chat room and took a long based on the buying that came in and rejection below the 1313.00 area off the lows and the 50% retrace PB into my level. The trade was clean and nice with minimal heat.
(Emotional) This was my best feeling trade all day. I took my time and analyzed it nicely and pulled the trigger and took 3 points.
(Grade) A+
4th trade: (Technical) Market tested the highs and sellers were active in front of the IBH so I took a short on a technical break and little retrace. This was the trade to look for more points on because of the probabilities of a IBL test was high. But I stuck to my trade plan and took 3 points on first and 4 on second which was more than my set target of 2 points so good trade.
(Emotional)I felt really good with this trade. My analysis was spot on.
(Grade) A+
5th trade: (Technical)Market was breaking down and we broke the IBL so I took the quick retrace and was only targeting the 1305.50 level as i felt the market wanted to test this area so it was a likely place to close the trade.
(Emotional)I was a little nervous selling so low on the day and after the big move we already had but I took it any way and was glad I did. Just need to be cautious on trades like this because they can fly up in your face quickly but I had momentum behind me.
(Grade) A
6th trade: (Technical) Market bounced off the 1305.50 level as expected and I went long with target at IBL which was good. The only problem is that I should have held for more as it was likely the market would test back up into the range. See 15 min chart.
(Emotional) I felt good on this trade because I was confident the bottom was in for the time being and the risk was on the short side.
(Grade) A
7th trade: (Technical) Now here’s where I get stupid and start taking stupid trades that eat into my profits. I tried a short at 50% retrace and previous day’s lows. The buyers had stepped in and we just came off the 1305.50 level which was significant. The buyers were in control of the market and the context wasn’t saying to get short just yet. A better short would have been the test of the 1311.50-1313.50 level I had on the chart. Over all the buyers were active on any PBs so selling right in that spot wasn’t good risk control I needed to see more of a stall in price and a reaction from the sellers before trying a short on a move controlled by the buyers.
(Emotional) At the time I felt good about this trade but I was also still on my high from this morning. As the market moved against me I started to realize that I was wrong but I wanted the market to take me out and it did lol.
(Grade)F
8th trade: (Technical) Thank you sir may I have another!!! This one seemed ok because we failed at the highs on the move up so I was looking to get short for a move lower. I took a short of the trend line break but buyers were active on the other side. At the time the market was driven by news of ECB stuff and Greece. I should have checked the wires to see what was happening so im chalking this one up to not paying attention. The set up and context looked good other then the market not testing the IBH before moving lower. At the time the book was thin which was a sign traders were on the side lines for the moment.
(Emotional) I felt good on this one and I liked the set up I think it was just because of the news releases out at the time
(Grade)B


Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I was a little off guard this morning but was able to get back in the saddle. Over all I think my trading was good. I should have locked in some more profits on the day but hey what can I do … I m still learning. I did do to many trades today also. I had 8 trades today and I think I should have had only 4 at the most so I over traded a little today but still ended the day up.
Grades:
Following my plans: B
Following my rules: B






Pre market analysis 6-2-11 Thursday

News: Jobless claims @ 8:30AM, Productivity and cost @ 8:30AM, And Factory orders @ 10AM
Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES sell off pretty hard catching alot of people off guard. We sold off back to the 1313cvpoc and closed there. Vpoc shifted all the way down to 1313.25 and we could see more down side in the coming days/weeks. Globex has mostly balanced all night with an upside bias.
(Trade plan) After yesterdays big move lower I'm expecting a balanced session today. Usually after a big move the market will consolidate as it accepts the new prices it is at. Globex has placed value at the lower end of yesterdays profile show that the sentiment is still bearish. So today i will watch the open and gauge the participation of the market and go from there. Over all i will be looking to sell at resistance as i expect sellers to be active at any resistance areas. And because I'm expecting a balanced session i will be looking for longs at support but will be cautious on the long side.