End of day Review 2-4-11 Friday

 ES had a neutral reaction to the NFP number and the market didn't really move after the initial release. My expectation today was to wait and see how ES reacted to the release and being that it was neutral i shifted to a balanced session type scenario. ES tested the highs and provided a short opp at 1306 that i wasn't comfortable taking but in hind sight it was good risk to reward and i should have taken it. I also need to be comfortable with my levels that I want to trade. I originally had my levels at 1296.50-1298.50 and i liked them but changed them to 1301-1299 because of what someone else had. I hind sight my levels worked with my view of market context and i need to be comfortable with my analysis not someone else's. It's ok to have someone as a guide when you don't know what you are doing but it's also important to trust yourself or you will just be a follower though out trading career. And that won't cut it for me.

1st Trade: I took this trade to early. What can i say... I wanted to see it test lows of the day but i jumped the gun and got in to early and it cost me 2 points. I know where i messed up and i know what i did wrong so my fault.

2nd Trade: I took a short after market broke the lows of the day. It was a bad trade and i bailed and flipped long with a 2 tick loss. I usually wont flip positions but being where the market was i knew i was on the wrong side of the trade and wanted to get long quickly after i realized it. After getting short the market didn't follow through and bids firmed up in the book telling me to get long at this important support area.

3rd Trade: This was the trade i flipped long on and good thing cause the market followed through pretty quickly to the upside. I took 1 off for 3 points and held the other for original target of 6 points. Market hit 61.8% retrace and offers stuck in the book so i should have exited there on the other. I decided to hold out for the 1304.75 target giving me 6 points but on the little pull back into globex lows i was taken out for +2 points. ( I locked in 2 after being up 4). What i should have done was keep stop below something to give some protection. Instead i left stop at +2 points which was globex low and thats where the market stopped at and moved up to my target at 1304.75.

Pre Market Analysis 2-4-11 Friday

News: NFP @ 8:30AM

Daly Chart notes: ES is managing to hold above the 1298 area. We did dip down to 1290 on a test by the sellers and selling shut off at 1290 as expected. We bounced back up and market is waiting for NFP at 8:30AM

MP Notes: ES tested down to 1290 area and bounced back up to the high of the balance area as expected. We have been balancing in a range 1298-1306 above the previous balance area. Yesterday say ES test 1290 then bounce up trading value most of the day the closed above value at the end of the day. Buyers are still in control. Globex balanced in a small range over night waiting for the big NFP release at 8:30AM. We have a bullish macro structure but we will have to wait for the release to see how the market reacts to the news.

Trade plan: Buyers are still in control above 1290 area and ES is set up with a bullish structure. We have to wait for the NFP release to see how the market reacts to it. In the case of a bearish reaction ES could trade back down into the range of previous value. And we could see a possible long liquidation type day again. I would expect selling to shut off buy 1274 area and will look to get short to join the move. In the case of a bullish reaction i expect ES to make new highs on the year and i will look to catch pullbacks into support area on the 30 min chart to go-long with the move. Over all i will be patient and let the market tell me what it wants to do.