End of Day Review 2-28-11 Monday

ES had a balanced session today trading from level to level offering some good trading opps. I unfortunately i missed the good runs. I still end the day up but not as much as i should have been. I guess a positive day is a positive day. So i am thankful for it. I see where messed up today and i will take note of it so i can adapt and get better in my trading. There is one good trade that i didn't get filled on but was the trade of the day IMO and that was long at 1320 area. I had my order in and market traded at my price but no fill. Over all im very happy with my levels and the change i made last week in how i get prepared for trading has been helping me to feel more confident before the market opens. Until tomorrow have a good night.

1st trade: I went short at 1328.25 after market hit resistance. I ended up  scratching for + a few ticks because this was a very counter trend trade, everything was pointing up and i only took it because we were chopping around and was looking for a rotation to the downside. I ended up getting out to early but that's ok i would rather be out instead of being in wishing i was out.

2nd Trade:  I took a short at 1325.00 1 tick in front of the 15 min double bottom after the move lower. I was correct in selling the 1328.75 level but didn't hold for the follow through. Then ES sold down to 1323.75 and i took the retrace short at 1325 to join the move lower. Unfortunately i was tied up with work and had to go outside so i move to BE and didn't want to let the trade play out without me watching it and i took the BE and went to  handle my work issues then went to lunch. The market did follow through after touching the 1326 resistance level so trade was a nice one, just work interfered with it.

3rd trade: I took a short at 1323.00 playing the down trend line and resistance area. I was stopped for 6 ticks on this one. I didnt really like it but i think i took it because i was bored and i missed the others. Not a good reason to trade. Any way the context was telling me to stay out of it after testing the 1319-1320 level.

4th Trade: I took a long after the trend line broke so i can join the move up. I had a 3 point target on this one because i believed a rotation back up to the highs of the day was in the cards. The market traded to my target and i didn't get filled so i settled for 2 points at 1325.25.

Pre Market analysis 2-28-11 Monday

News: Chicago PMI @ 9:45AM, Pending home sales@ 10 AM,

Daily Chart notes: The daily chart shows a PB in the bigger uptrend. We retraced more then half the move down and it looks like ES may be continuing the move up. I will monitor for buyers at support to continue the move higher. Unless we start to see some more selling come back into the market around this level it is likely to see ES trade back up to the highs.

MP Notes: Looking at the weekly profile ES has been moving the past week. We have recently turned back up and we are around 61.8% retrace of the move down. Looking at the profile we can start to range between 1292-1342. And looking at globex session today we are right in the middle of that range. So caution needs to be taken because we can really go in either direction. Most of the globex session put value in at Fridays session and has recently shot up to 1326-1327 level and is trading up and down there building acceptance at 1324.75.

Trade plan: ES shot up on Fridays session and spent most of the day around composite POC at 1319 area. The market is accepting higher prices and now globex has broken to the upside showing some strength in the pre market session. The plan is to look to buy pull backs into support and sell resistance at my levels. If we break below 1319-1320.50 level it would be a red flag for buyers. If 1315-1317 gives way i will be less likely to be a buyer at support because we mat test lower down to find support. Over all the market is in a tricky area and i need to be cautious in either direction. With ES opening above Fridays value we could get some buying right off the open or a gap fill.

End of day review 2-25-11 Friday

So ES pretty much went straight up off the open. We had OTD opening type from the previous day’s high and the market shot up giving no real opps to join the move. We traded right into 1316 poc on the composite and shut off for a while. The expectation for the open was for ES to test lower then move higher. Im assuming that when the market opens above value I need to watch for responsive seller/buyers at the open to get an idea of who will take control of the open. I didn’t really see any good opps today and I only had 2 scratch trades.

   During the last 2 weeks I have been having a hard time with trading, mostly to do with my emotions. Some of it had to do with work but I don’t want to blame work for making me feel the way I did. I have a choice in the way I approach trading. I can either choose to let trading and my job make me feel bad when things aren’t going as planed which effects my results. Or I can choose to not let it affect me at all which is one of the most difficult things to do. But it will allow me to detach myself from being too emotionally invested in trading which I think is a very important trait for traders to have. Over all I didn’t do to bad this week im only down $175 bucks so not a big deal. I believe I have a better grasp on my emotional state and I learned a few good lessons this week. Lessons that I believe are far more important to trading then learning about the technical stuff. I’m going to enjoy the beautiful south Florida sunshine this weekend and hang out with my wife and furry kids. Till next week…

Pre Market Analysis 2-25-11 Friday

News: GDP @ 8:30AM, Consumer sentiment @ 10:00AM

Daily Chart Notes: ES Traded down to 1292 area and was quickly rejected back above the 1297-1299 level which was also the 61.8% fib retrace level of the bigger move down from the highs. The recent action can still be viewed as a pullback in the bigger uptrend. I will now monitor the downtrend pullback to see if it will reverse and go lower and continue the move down or if we start to range and move back up to the highs.

MP Notes: The profile has been placing value lower all week and finally over lapped yesterday. Now Globex is forming value higher up on yesterday’s session giving us a macro structure. We tested the 1297 area and formed a p structure on the day indicating short covering on the lows.

Trade plan: With ES overlapping value yesterday and gobex forming value higher it looks as if the market may be turning and a short term bottom is in place. We still have a bearish IB on the weekly profile and it possible we test lower. I’m expecting support to hold, and looking for the market to make a move higher up. The only catalyst out after the open today is the consumer sentiment number and depending on the market’s reaction to it we could go either way. The first area I will look at for longs is globex low area which is a level on the composite as well. I will also be looking for short opps into resistance area on my 30 min chart. I will be a little more cautious on the short side and will only look to take good solid set ups. The market looks like it is gonna open above yesterdays value so the expected open is OAOR and sellers to step in and push the market into support. Be patient and wait for the market to show its hand before jumping on to anything. RELAX :)

Busy times at work = bad trading...

Been busy the past few days. Trading hasn't been going to well the past few days. I have been tied up with work and it has been taking its toll on me emotionally. I have realized that this has been interfering with my trading. So i have taken some precautions to help with this. Im pretty much back to break even with the beginning of the year and i am really close to going back on sim as per my MM rules. So i need to be careful and trade smart. I have also had some issues with my charting and data feed. I recently switched my computers and have nothing but issues with the one im using now so i think i will switch back. I have also realized that i need to be fully prepared in the morning and im just not ready to trade when the market opens. I find myself fooling around and thinking about whether my levels are in the right spot of not. I realize this is not a good habit so i am making changes to the way i get prepared in the morning. I will do my levels and analysis at night from my home after the market closes. Then i will email them and put them on my chart in the morning when i get to work. Then all i have to do is just make some final adjustments for globex session then im ready. It is very important to be confident and comfortable before trading. When the market opens, sit back relax and wait for the market to come to your level where you wanna trade for the day.

End of day Review 2-22-11 Tuesday

At first my expectation was for ES to trade back up to the value area high at 1342 area with the bullish action in the first 60 mins. ES traded up to 61.8% retrace of the bigger move down and sold off and never looked back. Then when ES reversed and started to trade lower I was looking for shorts below 1319-1321 area which we got at lunch time. After that there wasn’t any good opps for me to take except a long at 1314-1316 level after it chopped around there for a little bit and put in a 30 min reversal candle. It was good for a few points only as ES wanted to trade lower. The 1310.25-1308.25 level shut off the selling as expected. Now that we have continuation and we are away from the highs of the year area maybe we will get some good trade opps going. I will monitor globex tomorrow morning to get an idea of what we can expect tomorrow. Buyers will want to see this above 1306-1309 to stay in control of the bigger picture. If we take out this level then a move down to 1282 is likely.

Trades: See 3 min trades chart for details

Pre Market analysis 2-22-11 Tuesday

News: S&P Case shiller HPI @ 9AM, Consumer Confidence @10AM

Daily Chart notes: ES has been in a slow grind higher on really low volume. Recently we have seen ES break the daily wedge due to the political unrest in the Middle East.

MP Notes: WE sold off during Monday holiday trading and globex has seen ES trade down to the 1322 support level and this has held overnight giving ES a rotation back up. We have a bearish macro with globex value lower than Monday’s session. But given the holiday trade I need to wait for this to play out. Currently we are filling in the C pattern on the weekly profile and with only consumer confidence number released today we could trade around here for the session.

Trade plan: ES has been showing some signs of weakness the past 2 sessions. We have traded down to 1322 area of support and bounced there. The recent action can be viewed as a pullback in this big uptrend. The big picture buyers are still in control and they will not want to see this below 1319-1320 area. I expect the buyers to keep ES above this area and will look to play longs at support for a rotation back up into value high around 1342 area. If the selling continues on the back of a bad consumer confidence number or more Middle East unrest then a break of this support area is likely and I will look to be a seller on any retracements. I expect the 1310-1308 area to hold and the selling to shut off by then. Over all we are having some vertical development and could see ES trade lower today if the buyers can’t keep the market up. If they can then we could be working with the new developing balance are of 1319-1342 but this is yet to be seen.

End of day review 2-18-11 Friday

So the market traded as expected by balancing in a range for the session. At the open we grinded higher into the resistance zone at 1342-1344 where i took a short for 3 points. The situation hasn't changed this week we continue to grind higher and higher on low volume making it a very difficult area to trade. Caution really needs to be taken here and a lot of discipline will keep you out of harm's way. Kev always told me cash is a position and you have to know when NOT to trade. And that is the most difficult part of trading. I had a bad week this week and dug myself into a unnecessary hole if i would have just not traded when i was having them issue with work this week i would have been fine. I did some stupid things and i paid for it. I didn't have to trade especially with me knowing there was nothing to trade with ES being so dead. So next week hopefully ES will be tradable and i will be able to get back what i lost and end the month up. I learned an important lesson this week. In trading you have to except that you will not always be up and when your down you can't let it get to you, once you do it begins to deteriorate your confidence and it seems like you will never be ok again and the end of the world is right around the corner. But this is when you have to dig in and really fall back on your discipline and stick to MM rules. If i was to take one more loser i would have gone on SIM this week till i was able to be confident again. I will see how i do next week and i will be careful and only trade when im not upset about work issues and when the market has something to do. All in all im still pretty new at the game and i know i have a lot to learn. So the journey continues...

1St trade: See trades chart.

Pre Market Analysis 2-18-11 Friday

News: No News out today

Daily chart notes: Same old situation. Big daily wedge and ES grinding higher.

MP Notes: ES closed in the upper part of value yesterday on a P shape day. We had breaking value yesterday and we need to monitor for continued vertical development. Globex has formed value in the upper part of yesterdays range giving us a neutral to bullish macro structure.

Trade plan: As of yesterday ES is starting is starting to show signs of vertical development and we need to monitor for continuation of this. We broke out of the weeks range and consolidated at the highs and globex has consolidated in yesterdays upper value area giving us a neutral to bullish macro structure. The expectation for today is for Es to trade higher into resistance and look for sellers. We have 1340.50-1342.50 level above and we should see a test of this area giving us a rotation to play to the down side. Without any news out today i expect ES to balance in a range most of the day giving little opps to trade. Buyers are still in control and need ES to stay above 1336-1334.50 level to stay in control. If we break down below that we could see ES trade back down to 1325.75-1327.75 level and then 1322.25 which is the lower part of the range that has recently developed.