End of day review 5-5-11 Thursday

I had no time to do a morning analysis

Trade plan and price action review: We pretty much had another balanced session although there was some selling later in the day. The market gave some good reactions at my levels today; to bad I was dealing with work issues. I didn’t get to my computer till 11AM and missed a few good opps.

   Market opened and responsive buyers stepped in and moved the market back up into yesterdays range a little bit. We mostly balanced the first few hours and there was a few good opps to get long on the retest of the 1334-1335.50 level. After the last test of the level we failed to test back up at the IBH so this was a sign that we may break lower and not look to take the range trade again. Then we broke down and tested the IBL at 1332.75 and found responsive buyers active there. It was also the 50% retrace from the second leg up in the bigger uptrend and globex low’s a good place for longs because risk was well defined. We shot back up into the 1343 vpoc from yesterday and failed to hold a break above it. We chopped around for a little bit which is what you want to see if you wanted shorts there. We popped down and tested IBH for a few points up but failed to make new highs again so price action was telling me not to take a retest of the IBH again. We broke below IBH and popped back into it for a quick scalp trade. We then tested the 1337-1338 level I had and traded back up for a few points but stilled failed to take out previous swing high singling that we may go lower. The move up into the 1341.50-1343.00 level was a good place to get short as the price action was telling me to start looking for a move lower. Market went lower breaking the uptrend line on the 15 min chart and we had a quick retrace for a short lower down to target areas below. We sold off hard and had a quick break and retrace trade at IBL on the back of the momentum that was in the market at the time. The market bounced hard at my 1323-1325 area level or you could use the 1327.50-1328.50 level as being rejected.

Trades review: OK on to the trades. First of all I shouldn’t have been trading today due to the major blow out I had with my boss. I was so mad that I saw red for hours. But I did anyway. I didn’t do to horrible. But I was defiantly able to tell that I couldn’t focus or have a bias. I was just trying to “trade”. 1^st trade So I went short at 1335.50 and I didn’t put the market into context before taking this trade. My mind was all over the place and I realized I was not in at a good place so I scratched for -1tick.Then we popped up a little bit and I thought for sure that this was a better location and I was quickly stopped out for -6 ticks. The market had just hit the 50% retrace of the move down i had no business getting short there. Also we were right in the middle of the range on a range bound morning so I should have been looking back up at the IBH area which broke with momentum so I wouldn’t have been looking for a short there anyhow.

2^nd trade Second trade I went short after the market started breaking the 1337 level but I pussyed out and took one off for 3 ticks and the other for 2 points and seconds after the market fell apart. My first target should have been the lows of the day at 1332 for at least 5 points!

3^rd trade This last trade I was completely caught up in the price action and tried a short at a retrace to 1327.25 level and got stopped out for 6 ticks again. Over all I was down $200 bucks. Not a big deal but definitely not a away to make a living trading. Need to work on my issues

End of day review 5-4-11 Wednesday

Price action review: Ok so today ES sold off a little bit but the day was still balanced. Value was established lower with vpoc shift from 1353.00 down to 1343. Sellers have taken control short term but I think this may be short lived. I’m still looking at this as a PB in a bigger uptrend. And will continue to do so as long as we don’t break below 50% area around 1329 area which is also the big vpoc from the recent balance area. Below that I’m bearish longer term. Otherwise I’m still bullish above on strong support areas.

   For today’s price action we opened below yesterday poc at 1353 and sellers were in control off the open. They pushed down below the open price several times. I had level at 1351-1353 and there was a few opps to sell there but I wasn’t at my computer to take advantage of the great sell opps there. In my morning plan I wanted to sell this area on first touch. ES pushed lower to my next level at 1345.50-1347.50 and with the momentum and the sellers in full control I didn’t want to buy this area so I waited for the break and retrace. The previous day’s lows gave a good level to short at with using a 6 tick stop. The market quickly followed through and we had all the making of a trend down day so I held for lower prices. Market bounced at my next level at 1342-1340 and then sold lower making new lows again. Then we bounced again at same level but made lower high. We had one more flush down breaking IBL and breaking the level finally. I had strong support at 1338 area and this is where the market shut the selling off and where I exited. Came back for a retest with tick and ADD and VB divergence at the 1338 lows and the market bounced back up into vwap and back above the 1342-1340 level and a quick retrace gave a long opp for a push back up into 1345-1347 area level and ON lows. We sold off 4 points to 50 % retrace of move from the lows and bounced back up closing on the day at 1342.50 right at vpoc on the day. The buyers are still active on these pushes down.

Trades review: I had 2 trades today 1^st one was perfect. The second trade I jumped the gun and went short to early. I have to work on my patients when looking to take a trade. I need to let the market show me that is going to make a turn or that the probabilities of it making are turn is increasing. Where I went short at 1345.25 was way too early. Better positioning would have been in the level and after the tick div happened and the rejection on the 5 minute sticks and the 15 min reversal stick lol. A lot of confirmation was there of when to get in. Instead I sold right in front of the area I was watching and had a 8 tick stop and the market went 9 ticks and then reversed. Still happy today and will continue to work on my entrys and timing.

Pre market analysis 5-4-11 Wednesday

News: After open is ISM Non-Mfg index @10AM

Price action analysis: This recent action is a pullback in a bigger down trend and im looking for buyers to step in soon. I don’t think the bottom is in today and I will not anticipate it being in. We had a decent bounce at good support yesterday but we can still see more downside into a fib retrace level. Globex balanced in a range last night and im still expecting a range bound day. Globex traded up into yesterday vpoc and back down to the lows of yesterday then broke above vpoc and stopped at HVN of yesterday at 1355.00 and has traded back into the vpoc of globex session at 1350.75 area. Depending on where we open ES could just range for the day at these prices building out more value in this recent little balance area. I'm expecting buyers and sellers to be active at s/r levels today and will adjust accordingly when price action unfolds. See scenarios below.

Bull scenario: I will be looking to be a buyer at support. The market is currently trading at 1350s and i  have initial support at 1345-1347 area and i will be looking for longs there on first test. A break below that could bring in more sellers. I will still be looking for longs below and will be looking at the 1340-1342 area for a bounce. Below that i will be looking at the previous balance area high at 1338 for responsive buyers to be active and will take longs there as well. Below 1338 i have strong support at 1334.50-1335.00 and expect selling to shut off by here but this would be an extreme.

Bear scenario: I will be looking for shorts at resistance areas with a balanced session. I have initial resistance at 1351.25-1352.75 and i expect sellers to be active there on first touch. A break above that will bring the ON highs area and 1355-1357s into play where i also expect sellers to be active. A break above that and i will be more cautious selling and more inclined to be a buyer on PBs as i will be expecting a retest of areas above..

End of day review Tuesday 5-3-11

Es opened and traded down to naked vpoc at 1352.75 we bounced from there back up to 1 tick in front of the IBH at 1357.00. I wanted to see ES trade a little beyond the IBH or at least touch it so I didn’t look at selling this area. Also I didn’t have my levels at 1356.75-1358.50 set in the correct place this morning so the market didn’t trade up into my level and that’s why I wanted 58 to trade. If I had my levels in the correct place the market would have hit that area just nicely and I would have taken a short there. I was off by 2 ticks to high. Will watch for that next time it’s just a matter of experience. Then the market proceeded to move lower and we had a little bounce at IBL so on the retest I went long (#1) which looking back was bad trade location because my trade level was at 1349.50-1351.00 and IBL was at 1352.00 so needless to say we broke below and I was stopped out for 6 ticks. We got a little bounce at globex low and then a retrace back up into IBL which would have been a good area to sell against and go with the momentum. After moving lower I still believed in the long side so I tried again (#2) at 1350.25 long and failed to bounce and was stopped again for 6 ticks. It looked good for a long here and the location was good except the market didn’t want to trade higher and I should have realized that and not tried the next trade. At this time I would have been better off walking away but I tried again (#3) long at 1350.25 lol and was stopped again for 2.25 points on that because stilled believed in the long side. So finally I stepped away and came back in a little bit after re-centering myself. Now we were in an area I identified in my morning trade plan as an area “we could get a rotation at the 1345-1347 area so i will be looking here as well”. It would have been great trying to trade from the long side but when you get stopped 3 times in a row the market is trying to tell me something so listen up… Then the market bounced at my support 3 points back up into ON low where it would have been good for a short to trade back lower and was good for 3 points. Now longs are looking good here with the divergence in the ticks and my delta indicator. So I finally got long but my entrance was off again but my 6 tick stop kept me in. Now I did something  here I usually never do and I added to my position after realizing my entry was off I didn’t move my stop but I bought 2 more at 1346.25 and now have 4 riding up for 3 points target. The target was achieved and I had 1 runner for a target of 51 and I chickened out and took it off at 49 for the same 3 when clearly the next target was IBL at 1352 area.

   To sum up my trading for the day I obviously had fear of missing something because I kept taking trades trying to pick were the market was going to turn as opposed to letting the market tell me where and when to put my trade on. The short term trend was down and I should have been looking to sell areas. The market didn’t give any reason to get long in my areas other than the 1345-1347 area which was clear as day. I think I need to sit back and relax a little bit and read the price action and not be afraid to miss something.

   The trades I should have taken was long at first touch of my level at at ON low I would have been in front a point or so and could have scratched for BE. After 49 broke I should have been looking for shorts and could have taken a short at retest of ON low. If I didn’t like that then a long on first touch of my 1345-1347 area and first target would have been retest of ON low. Then the long at 1346.25 was the ideal trade of the day for a nice bounce back up. All in due time… I have to keep evolving in my psychology and market read of price action.

Pre market analysis Tuesday 5-3-11

News: Factory orders @ 10 AM

Trade plan: So the market has been grinding higher and I was expecting a balanced session yesterday and most of this week. For the most part the day was balanced but we did start to see some responsive sellers step in and move the market lower in yesterday’s session. Value expanded and the range on the day got bigger (13 points or so) then the recent norm. And the vpoc shifted lower throughout the day closing at 1357.75. With the recent uptrend the market could use a little breather so a pullback wouldn’t be unexpected. The question is how far will it pullback? Over all buyers are still in control and im bullish above the 1349-1351 level short term. Without any real market moving catalyst tomorrow im expecting a range bound day to take place. Globex has been establishing value lower throughout the night building acceptance at 1354.50. We currently are bouncing off of the 1349.50-1351.00 level as i expect buyers to maintain this area to remain in control.

Bull scenario:

Value built lower yesterday and in globex so im becoming a little more bearish. I still believe buyers are in control above 1349.50-1351.00 area short term but sellers could test below that level today so i will be cautious getting long there although i do expect a bounce on first touch of this area. Below that area we could get a fast liquidation down to the 1340-1342 area where i expect buyers to be active as well and will be looking for long opps as well. If trade is slow and balanced we could get a rotation at the 1345-1347 area so i will be looking here as well. Over all buyers in control and context is bullish above the 1349-1351 area so i will be looking for rotation at each support level below unless we get an OD type open.

Bear scenario:

For the short side i will be looking for shorts at resistance if the day sets up as being balanced. After the responsive move lower yesterday i believe the buyers are getting weak up here and the sellers are starting to step in. If this is the case then i will start to see more of a reaction from the sellers at resistance areas. In which case i will be looking to sell the rotations off of the resistance levels. I have resistance level and globex highs at 1357-1359 area which is also the vpoc from yesterday and if sellers are going to continue their selling they will want the market below this area a break above that could bring in a test of the highs again. I have resistance at the highs at 1366.50-1368.00 but i will be cautious selling the highs of the year as we could break higher again. There is also minor resistance at 1361.75 and we could see a reaction there as well.