End of day review 3-14-11 Monday

ES opened above Fridays value then found resistance around the 1292-1294 area. We traded lower down to support at 1281-1282.50 and bounced from there. i was expecting ES to trade higher today but we traded below the 87-88 level and confirmed sellers are in control. This left the door open for a move lower. We found support at 1281-1282.50 area and the market chopped along that level for a little bit. We traded back up into the bigger range forming value all around the level. So i looks like we have a range extension. Im still expecting the market to trade higher this week but i will be cautious of a move downward. Im expecting globex to trade above 1287 and no higher than 1298

1st trade: I was short at 1285.50 and ended up scratching. The reason for the short was we moved lower below key 87-88 level and stayed there for some time. As soon as ES moved back up in to resistance i was waiting there to sell. I scratched because we were chopping around for sometime at support and had strong buying back up into resistance. The trade was good for 2 points but i wanted to keep risk tight so after a point in front i went to break even.

2nd Trade: I took this short after i took the 1st trade. I don't know why i took it because on the first trade i scratched for a good reason and i went and tried to short again at the same level. My mistake.

3rd trade: This trade i took because i was looking for longs and we pulled back to trend line and level support. The reason was because we traded back above the key support level so i was looking for longs.

Pre Market Analysis 3-14-11 Monday

News: No News releases today

Daily chart notes: The major trend line was broken last week indicating that the trend up may be changing. ES also has been forming lower highs which may mean that we are starting a new down trend. We have been in a consolidation area and broke down but quickly reversed back up into the range. We are currently retesting the bottom of the uptrend line.

30 Min chart notes :The 30 min chart has been trending lower recently and has started some ranging type action in globex session. We are still in a range on the higher time frame and I'm expecting ES to move higher.

Trade plan: ES has had a big move up on the daily time frame and has recently been trading in a big range. On Fridays session we found responsive buyers active at the open on the lower extreme of the range (1287-1288). ES has built value back above 1288 level and globex has formed value above that level as well. The expectation today is for ES to move higher. The key level for ES to stay above is the 1287-1288 level. If this area breaks i expect a test of support levels below and would confirm sellers are in control. If we hold above that area then i expect a test of the 1305-1307 area which is a back test of the major uptrend line and resistance area on the composite. A break above that will lead to a test of the 1310-1312 key strong resistance area. Over all i will be a buyer at support and a seller at resistance at 1310-1312 and below. With no news out today we could have a balanced session. There is also FOMC announcement tomorrow and this week is quad witching. Be patient and wait for the market to set up in the morning before having a bias.

Trading and meditaion

I have been realizing something over the last 6 months or so ever since i went on vacation in the end of December. Before i went away i was a mess. My trading was all over the place and i was losing by the end of the every month. I didnt understand why. So i go on vacation for 3 weeks like i said before in a previous post, and when i got back i was fully rested and refreshed. I was trading like i never had traded before. I was just making good trade after good trade and my PNL was showing the results. For the first time i was up by the end of the month and i was very happy. Then something happened. I started taking a lot of losing trades. Why? I have been searching the past few weeks to figure out the reason i did so good then so bad. Like i said before work was getting between me and trading and the daily stress of life was piling back up again. It took about 4 weeks to feel the way i felt before i went of vacation. The only logical reason i could come up with is that my mind was beginning to get filled with so much chatter and unnecessary junk that it started to cloud my judgment. Even though i thought i was clear and ready to handle the markets my results were telling me that i wasn't. So what i decided to do is learn how to meditate. It sounds easy right? But have you ever tried to sit and not think about anything for an extended period of time? Shit i couldn't do it for more than a few seconds. Your thoughts wonder off and you have to bring your self back over and over again. So i decided to learn a method of meditating that makes a lot of sense to me. There is  technique that is extremely useful in meditating and has been around for thousands of years. Its called Transcendental meditation Or TM. I wont go into what it is about here, you can search it on Google and find alot of info on it. Either way the idea is to be in a clear state of mind to allow myself to think unhindered and clearly. I start next week on Saturday and im really excited about it. Part of my trading plan includes a health portion. And with in the health portion is a part about mental and spiritual health. So i wanted to start to meditate any way as per my trading plan. TM will fulfill the mental part of my health plan. I will continue to journal my thought and results of taking a TM program along the way. Wish me luck.

Tracking my progress 10 Trades at a time.

Im going to start an excel sheet on Monday. It is going to aid me in the trade analysis part of my trading. currently i am using Ninja trader trade analysis that is built into the program. But i find that i am only using it to track my PNL over a week, month or YTD. Im not really seeing how my trades are progressing in terms of how they are executed by my trading methodology.
My objectives:
1. To see if I am trading in line with my expectations of my edge.
2. To notice if i am trading by my rules.
3. To be able to make necessary adjustments to my enteries and exits based off of my findings.
4. To see if i am sticking to my entry/exit and target/stop that i lay out before i take a trade.
5. To know my percent of winners and losers for every ten trades.
6. To see when i get stopped out if it was the correct action to happen. After stop, did market keep moving in that direction.
7. To see what time and how long i take a trade for.
8. To see how far a trade moved against or for me before getting out. (MAE-MFE)

Im sure i will refine this as i go on but i have determined that i need to see how my trades are playing out on paper so i can take notice of any trends and make the adjustments i need.

Trade review 3-11-11 friday

I wanted to do this post to show how i completly over looked today trading. Im mad at myself because i should have saw this in my morning analysis. Oh yeah i didnt do a morning analysis because of work lol any way i can clearly see now that i screwed up.

Heres the scoop!

     I haven't been doing to well with trading the past few weeks. Partly because i have had some issues with work. I don't want to sound like im blaming work or any thing like that. Its that i find it very difficult to concentrate on trading when my phone rings and i constantly get interrupted, and i don't have enough time to do my morning analysis to set my levels and feel comfortable with them. I haven't been posting my results either which isn't good for my development. Partially because of work and not having enough time after market close and also due to being so discussed with my results for the day that i don't want to even acknowledge my bad trading.
    In the beginning of the year i was doing really good and i thought for a minute that i have made it. I thought that i have finally turned the corner and that it will all be down hill from here. My PNL was starting to go up for the first time in the past 2 years. But I soon realized that is far from the truth. And that my trading journey is in fact just beginning. I remain optimistic. In light of all the hard times im faced with in trading right now this is the time that i really need to be strong. and keep up the good fight. because i really believe in the fact that i can become a full time trader. I feel im a pretty smart guy. And i see know difference in me or some one that is consistently profitable. Our supreme being (who ever you believe in) didn't come down from the heavens and tap the profitable traders on the head when they were just born and say "Your gonna be a profitable trader" or "Your gonna be a scientist" Or "Your gonna be a sports super star" It was a matter of hard work and a lot of effort that got these people to where they are today. One would say that traders are born. And i believe that to a certain extent. But i also believe more that it is a skill that is nurtured and honed to perfection. Through years of ups and downs. So that one day it can be utilized as needed to navigate the markets on a daily basis to pull profits out effortlessly.
   When i went on vacation to Colorado and spent 2 weeks in the Rockies soaking up the fresh mountain air. I really let the markets go and the learning that went into it for that time. When i returned i felt refreshed and ready to go. I looked at the charts and it all made sense to me. Kinda like Neo did when he realized he was the one. And i was nailing it. Then the past few weeks i feel i have hit the wall. So now im trying to figure out what happened and how i can change that to help me get out of this funk i am in.
     What i plan to do is stick to my rules. I will cut down to 1 lot for the next few weeks. And at the end of the month i will review my progress. If i am satisfied i will either increase back to 2 lots or i will go on SIM. I have to preserve my capital at all cost. And cutting back size or going on SIM are the only ways i can do that. I am in control of that. So that is what i will do. I am also gonna keep a trade sheet next to me and track my trades 5 or10 trades at a time. Just a simple sheet with entry, exit, reason and PNL. I may include a few other little things like context and where we were at with the market structure. I will do this to help see what trades i am messing up on and what i should have done instead. So i will start with that and go from there. I will try and post every day. Ok later on...

End of day review 3-9-11 Wednesday

Busy with work today. took two losers and then work stuff.