Pre market analysis 6-14-11 Tuesday

News: Business inventories @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday balanced in a range and placed value in the same area as Fridays trade. We had one interesting development happen though. ES sold off and tried to break the lows of the previous day balance area and the market quickly rejected that push down and responsive buyers were active below and pushed ES back into the balance area. We were left with a P shape profile which is indicative of short covering. Globex has traded higher in the overnight session showing that buyers are in control for now. Globex has a P shape profile again and value is establishing above the previous 2 day balance area.

(Trade plan) With buyers stepping into the market my focus will be on the long side at support areas. The market is due for some kind of a bounce and i see signs of support holding. We have business inventories out at 10AM and could see some reaction at that time. We also have a few econ release out before the open that could give some movement also.

End of day review 6-10-11 Friday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) Market gaped down and sold off. It was looking like a trend down day but we found support and bounced when the treasury budget was released at 2 PM. Sellers were active at the end of the day pushing ES down into the lows and closing there. Value established at the lows of the week.

(Trade plan) Kind of kicked back on Friday because the market sold off from the open and you are either on it or you watch it go. Although today wasn’t a trend day the open was exactly how a trend day usually starts out. Because of the quick selling off the open I wasn’t to eager to chase anything so I let it go and went to lunch. I was in the market on the short side on the break of globex lows at 75.50 but I scratched because I wasn’t prepared in the morning and I was out of sync with the market this week due to work. I will try and be better prepared this next week but like I said before I have to balance work and trading for now.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: Set up: Break and retrace

(Technical) Market was moving lower so I took a quick break and retrace of an intraday level for + 3 points

(Emotional) Felt ok taking this trade. It was a little later in than day then I would have liked but the set up looked good and I was ready for a reversal.

(Execution Grade) C Just took it because it looked good. Not the best entry but still worked out nicely.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: This week was a little hectic due to a lot of interference with work. I usually don’t get distracted this much with work but this week was more than usual. Im going to start keeping track of my winners, loser, and scratches more accurately then I have been next week. I want to see how many points I make/lose a week and what my % of trades is. Then I will add them up for the week on Friday for a week review.

Grades:

Following my plans: B

Following my rules: A

Emotions in check: B

End of day review 6-9-11 Thursday

No time for the morning post + it was rollover so wasnt to eager to trade today.

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened in value and just below the days VPOC. Sellers pushed ES down into the pre market trend line and the market bounced from there into a trend day type movement. Market shot above the previous day VPOC and had a small PB into 80-81.50 support where buyers were active and pushed back above into the 83.75-85 level/ We had a small rotation back into the 81.50-80 level and popped up from there closing the NVPOC from a few days ago. ES chopped around there for a while.

(Trade plan) Didn't plan on doing much today because of work and rollover.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual) No trades today

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: Today was rollover so i wasn't to eager to trade. Also i wasn't able to be fully prepared this morning due to work. I have a lot of things going on that i have to tend to lately. i need to be able to balance work and trading right now because honestly I'm not ready to leave me job yet. As long as i can still put in a decent amount of time trading while at work then i will continue to do so. But if things change for me at work that doesn't allow me to trade then i will have to rethink my plan of action for trading and my job.

Grades:

Following my plans: A+ I didn't take any bullshit trades because i was bored or it was rollover.

Following my rules: A+ Same

Emotions in check: A+ Same

End of day review 6-8-11 Wednesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened below value and responsive buyers were active on the open. We tested back up into the lows of the previous day’s range and found the sellers active pushing ES back below the previous day’s lows and down into the 1279 area of support. Buyers were active there pushing ES back up to the HOD and breaking the IBH and testing the down trend line from a higher time frame. We moved back into the day’s range and chopped around the vpoc for a while. The day went into a small rotational type trade around the day’s vpoc. We formed a triangle and broke out of it later in the days to the down side testing the IBL and the 1277 area of support. I missed that area as support but was watching it throughout the day. Buyers were active there and we had a nice bounce back up and then a retest to the 1277 area. We broke it by a tick and buyers stepped in pushing back up into the day’s vpoc and testing the uptrend line from the morning session which was a sweet area to get short to look for a rotation and trend continuation back to the lows. It was a good 6 point trade. ES closed below value and at the lows again today.

(Trade plan)

Trades review: (Hypothetical) see 5 min chart with black circles

(Actual)

1^st trade: Set up: break and retrace

(Technical) Market tested up then sold off so I took the retrace at previous day’s lows to join the selling.

(Emotional)I felt good about the trade because I was looking for a flush type move to find the buyers. My only issue is that I was a little greedy on the trade. I took one off for 3 points but let the other run and took BE on the second. 1279 was a very reasonable area to scale out or in my case close the trade because that’s what my plan is for now. When I get on at least 5 lots I plan on looking for runners. For now I need to build capital with the 2-3 points trades and get all out.

(Execution Grade)Execution was good. I only took a few ticks of heat and it followed through quickly.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I had a lot of stuff going on today at work so I couldn’t follow the market very well today. The times I was able to follow along I was never able to stay long enough to watch anything follow through or to have a firm grasp on what was taking place.

Grades:

Following my plans: A+ because I didn’t do anything stupid today in the face of being busy with work. That was my issue back in March.

Following my rules: A+

Emotions in check: A+ All good in that area today. I didn’t feel any reason to “have to trade”

Pre market analysis 6-8-11 Wednesday

News: Beige book @ 2PM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) ES has been in a down trend the last few weeks. Each session has been placing value lower down and the vpoc has been shifting lower as well. Yesterday's session traded most of its value in the upper part of the previous days session showing that the market wants to trade higher. Late afternoon the market broke down below that value and closed at the previous day's lows and closed below the day's value at the lows leaving us with a P shape profile. This type of profile is still considered a short covering day but the market sold off to find where the buyers where sitting at. Globe has still traded lower placing all its value below the previous days value. This gives us a bearish macro structure and means we may trade lower. I believe we are due for a bounce and that's just my gut feeling. I will not base any trade decisions off of that. I will trade what i see as it develops.  We are set to open below value and that could bring in responsive buyers.

(Trade plan) With the bearish macro structure in place this morning i will be looking for a test of the areas below. I expect responsive buyers to be active at support areas but will be cautious on longs. I also expect sellers to be act at resistance levels above. We have beige book out at 2PM so we could just have some movement in the AM and balance up to the release. Also we have a neutral weekly IB and im expecting areas to hold.