End of day review 6-1-11 Wednesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) Wow nice sell off today lol. I saw so many people trying to catch the bottom of this move I was starting to wonder if these people should call them self’s traders. Anyway. The market was trying to put together a rally and price action yesterday was very bullish. Today changes everything on a few different levels. If we can’t find buyers down here then the 1313 level becomes very important on a higher time frame. We could see a sustained move down and even a new down trend start to develop. Either way I am a day trader (I hate that label lol) and I will look at the shorter term trend and trade with it. But it is always good to know what’s going on around you. If you don’t it’s like flying a plane without a radar system. You will be able to see what’s going one right in front of you but will not know what’s happening just around the mountain. On to the price action. We had a bearish reaction to the ADP employment report which came in a lot worse than expected and caused the initial move lower in globex. We had a little bounce into the 1340-1341 level and the market consolidated in a range until the econ release at 10 AM. Both news releases were worse than expected and the market never looked back. I had nice reactions at all my levels today and they all broke except for the 1311-1313 level which is the cvpoc and where the selling shut off at the end of the day. Today was a perfect trend day down and it needed to be treated just like it was a trend down day. There was no reason to try for longs anywhere as at each level the market never gave any reason to get long. The easy trades were looking to sell the rallies into resistance. You were either on in the morning and held for the ride or you sat on your hands. The only good area to join the move was selling the IBL retest which was also the C period poc and the retest of the down trend line on the break back inside of it.

(Trade plan) On to my trade plan. I posted it before the ADP release at 8:30AM. Context was bullish before that and I was looking for support to hold. After seeing the reaction to the news release I changed my bias to bearish and was looking to sell into resistance somewhere.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) See 5 min chart

(Actual) I had a few trades today i didn't write them down so im not gonna take the time to go back and figure them out. Over all i missed the pull back in the down trend to join the move lower so i mostly sat out for the day. i ended the day down 1 point and they are just scratch trades. I didn't take any full stop outs.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: It was a trend down day and i am happy with my trading for the day. I didn't get a jumpy and try to get on somewhere. I stayed calm and relaxed and if i didnt see a safe place to get on board i didn't do anything. Over all I'm a little pissed that i didn't get anything at all but like i said i followed my game plan and i wasn't down big because i did.

Grades:

Following my plans: B

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: C

Pre market analysis 6-1-11 Wednesday

News: ISM Mfg index @ 10AM, Construction spending @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday ES gapped up and had a slow decline down to support. The context was bullish and buyers were expected at support areas. Buyers drove price back up to the opening prints and closed at the highs above value and shifting the vpoc up from friday. The upside was capped in globex at the 1347.75-1349 level and has traded lower down to the 1340-1341 level. Globex is placing value at the top portion of yesterday value area showing that buyers are still in control.

(Trade plan) With globex trading in the upper part of the Tuesday value area the context remains bullish and the trend is pointing up. We have 2 important news releases out after the open at 10 AM and we could just balance before they are released. The expectation is for support to hold today and my focus will be on the long side at support areas. Depending on the market's reaction to the news releases i will be looking for the globex lows and the 1340-1341 area to hold first. A break below that will bring the 1336-1337.50 area into play where im expecting to see buyers active as well. I remain bullish above the 1333 area. a break below that will turn me neutral short term but still bullish longer term above the 1313 area. Over all i will wait for the market to set up and look for the releases to hit the market before taking a trade unless something really nice sets up.

End of day review 5-31-11 Tuesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened above value and sellers were active pushing ES back into Fridays value highs where buyers were active and pushed ES back up into the highs of the day for a full rotation. Price action today was painfully slow and choppy. It was certainly not a good trading environment at least for me. If anyone else saw any opps please let me know where i was wrong at. There was a good long at support at Friday highs and i was at lunch when this happened so no go for me.

(Trade plan) The news releases didn't give any real action today and the big gap up didn't give any good opps as no volatility came from the move higher. I was expecting responsive sellers to be active and they were but they took their sweet ass time doing it. My focus was on the long side today at my support areas and the 1333-1334.50 area was good for a long. I wasn't expecting the market to make it down to the globex lows at 1330, we bounced at the 1333 level. So over all my plan was in line with what took place in the market today.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) Good long opp at 1333.00-1334.50 area. And another good long to join the rotation back up at 1337 double bottom at support.

(Actual)

1^st trade: I had one short today at 50% retrace of move down. This was counter to the context. So i wasn't gonna hold it for long in the chop. i was looking for a quick reaction of at least a few points and then was looking to get long at the 50% retrace of the little move higher from the lows. The market only pulled back to the 38% retrace and honestly i couldn't stand the chopping so i went out side. the trade was a BE scratch.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: So the market unfolded the way i expected today and i personally didn't see anything worth trading other then the long at support and the PB at 1337. I feel like i did well following my plan and i didn't get to anxious while watching the market chop around. If i were at my computer at lunch time im sure i would have taken the long at 1333s.

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: C should trade with the context

Pre market analysis 5-31-11 Tuesday

News: Consumer confidence @ 10AM, Chicago PMI @ 9:45AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Last week saw ES gap down and consolidate at the lows of the bigger balance area and the cvpoc at 1310 at the time. Buyers held their ground at cvpoc and tried to put a rally together for a move up. Buyers stepped in on Thursday and pushed ES up into the range, breaking the 3 day balance area we were in. On Friday value established higher above Thursday’s value and vpoc shifted up as well. Buyers are in control at the moment and need to see this market stay above the 1323.50-1325.00 area very short term. A break below that could bring in a quick move down to the 1319-1320 area. Over all im bullish above the cvpoc at 1313.00 and a move below that could bring in more liquidation on the higher time frames. On the daily chart this recent downward consolidation can be viewed as bullish because the daily and weekly have not given any real reason to be bearish yet. I would need to see a break and hold below the 1313 level to shift my midterm bias to bearish. Globex has trended higher all night. Im not quite sure what that about but the buyers are clearly still in control.

(Trade plan) We have a few news releases out after the open that could give some movement after they hit the market. With the big gap up this morning we could see some good opps today. I will be looking for responsive sellers up here as we are opening way above value and ES could try and close the gap. If no sellers are present then we could see ES try and make a move up. My focus will be on the long side into support areas on my 30 min chart. The market is currently trading at 1342 area around the globex highs. I will be looking for support to hold but will be cautious up at these levels as the risk is more on the long side. Below i have the 1336- 1337.50 level i expect buyers to be active there. A break below that will bring Fridays range into play and im expecting buyers there as well. Im not expecting the market to get below the globex lows area and if it does this will be a sign of weakness buy the bulls.

End of day review 5-27-11 Friday :)

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened above the value of yesterday and buyers were active on the open. They pushed ES up a few points into the 1331-1333 resistance area and sellers pushed back down to 1327-1328.50 support and yesterdays highs where buyers were once again active. I was long here but got scared out of the trade and took a BE scratch. ES shot back up into the resistance level and we tried to break above the IBH but responsive sellers were active pushing ES back into the day's range where we chopped for the rest of the afternoon which was expected because of the extended weekend. As of writing this ES is at 1329.7 @ 2:15PM.

(Trade plan): So i said that because of the holiday weekend that we could just chop around after the news release and that's exactly what we did... Nothing. I was expecting support to be bought on any PBs and the buyers were active at the 1327-1328.50 level yesterday highs. I wanted to see more of a PB into the globex lows area but the reaction at the first level is a bullish sign that the buyers are in control. So over all my analysis was correct and my expectations played out accordingly.

Trades review: (Hypothetical)

(Actual)

1^st trade: I was long at 1327.25 and i got scared out of it for some reason. Not quite sure why but i remember that it was all emotions that was driving that decision. I started looking for reasons to get out instead of reasons to stay in and the reason i decided to take the trade in the first place. 

2^nd trade: I took a short at 1332.75 because we were trading into resistance at 1331-1333 and 60 min trend line. Buyers gave it one last push and we had div on ticks and VB so i took it as i was expecting a balanced session anyway. I was shooting for 3 points to catch the rotation down but buyers were active at 50% retrace which is where i should have exited in the first place so i ended up taking 6 ticks on it.

3rd Trade: I sold the trend line in this choppy market for +2.5 points and got out at 61.8% retrace of the lows on the morning. It was a good straight forward trade and a nice way to end the week.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I did well today but so so for the week. I was able to tell we had a different type of trading market this week after that big gap down on Sunday night. We mostly chopped around in the beginning and had small limited moves mostly in this balance area. We broke out of the balance area and the market started moving a little bit more which was a relief. I was only down a 100 bucks for the week so not so bad. I'm realizing that once a trader gets comfortable with the technical aspects of trading that it's just a matter of overcoming ones emotional waves of highs and lows. When you're doing well you are filled with positive emotions and you get a little bit to confident and then bam you get knocked back a few steps. And when things are going bad you never feel like you will get back up on top. Its these waves of emotions that cause a trader that is still learning to have the swings in their PnL. Trading is about staying level headed and not letting the highs get out of touch with reality and not letting the lows keep you from having the motivation to get back up again.

Grades:

Following my plans: C

Following my rules: B

Trade execution: C

Pre market analysis 5-27-11 Friday :)

No post last night i just didnt have the time. Down day for me anyway. im going to have to start doing my analysis at night again because i just dont have the time ion the AM at work. I mean doesn't work start at 8AM ... So why does the boss think that because im here at 7AM that he can just get me to start doing shit before 8AM. Maybe i should do my pre market analysis at home in the AM. FML at work lol

News: Personal income @ 8:30AM , consumer sentiment @ 9:55AM, Pending home sales @ 10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday action saw ES move higher off of the 1313 cvpoc area and breaking the highs of the previous day. This is bullish short term and im expecting higher prices to follow as the bulls are back in control of this market. Globex has placed value higher up on yesterday giving us a bullish macro structure. The 1330 level held on the up side and the 1324 level held on the down side.

(Trade plan) We have a few news releases out today that could provide some movement in the morning. Today is the Friday in front of a holiday weekend and we could just chop around after the initial reaction on the release. With the overall price action the past few sessions im expecting support to be bought and on any PBs. We have the 1323-1324.50 level which is also globex lows and i expect buyers to be there on first touch a break below that could bring in a fast move down to the 1318.1319 level were i still expect buyers to be active. Im bullish above the globex lows area at 1323 very short term and bearish below the 1313 area. Over all i will focus on the long side into support areas.