End of day review 5-17-11 Tuesday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action). Today was a down day and value was established lower and the vpoc shifted lower once again. The market opened below value attracting responsive buyers and we pushed up into yesterdays range a little bit. We had a little rotation down to the open price and buyers were still active pushing up into yesterday’s vpoc and my level at 1327.25-1328.75. The market stalled here for a few minutes and sold off breaking the IBL and testing the clvn at 1316.00 area. This area was rejected and buyer pushed back up into the day’s range where we had small rotations down as we trended higher in to the close.

(Trade plan) I kind of had to rush my morning trade plan because I was running late this morning. But basically I wanted to be a buyer at support and seller at my resistance areas. I was expecting more of a move today as we were at the lows of the balance area but the market just balanced in a decent range.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) The black circles are the hypothetical trades I could have taken.

(Actual) I had 2 trades today. See below.

1^st trade: I was short at 1328 even. I got this one perfectly. I was patient and waited for the right time to sell. And it paid off because the market followed through quickly. I couldn’t hold for more because I had to go back outside because of work. I would have left it to run if I had been a little more at ease and not felt rushed.

2^nd trade: I was long at 1324.75 after a big move up and a retrace. The trade quickly went in my favor but I moved my target up because I was expecting the market to rally into the close. But the buyers never followed through and I was stopped for BE. It was getting late in the session and I didn’t want to let the stop work because of a possible move against me late in the day. It would have been a quick clean 2 points and would have given me 4 points on the day.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: So the second trade got me thinking today. I really need to leave my targets alone. Because like I have said before I only need them 2 point trades to make it in trading. If I trade a 2 lot or a 20 lot I have to take the first 2 points to put some money in the bank. I can’t keep risking the 2 points that im up in hopes for more follow through. It’s not very good money management. I have to focus on consistency right now. As long as I can get in and get out with 2 points I will build consistency. And with consistency I will build my size up. Here is how I see it. I take a trade with 2 lots and I get filled for 2 points. That’s $200.00 bucks. If it keeps going oh well i made my target. On a 10 lot that 2 points is $1,000.00 bucks. It’s all about consistency and then size. Now I can choose to take 5 lots off for 2 points and let some ride to extended targets that would be $500 bucks in the bank and at least I can make something.

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: A

Pre market analysis 5-17-11 Tuesday

News: Housing starts @ 8:30AM, Industrial production @ 9:15AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Yesterday saw ES trade lower with vpoc established lower on the session compared to Fridays. Value shifted a little bit lower giving us a bearish tone to the market. We are still inside of the balance area but we are at the lower extremes of it. The market is sitting at an area where it is very vulnerable to a sell off. Globex established value lower down as well so we have bearish sentiment heading into the days trading.

(Trade plan) The plan today is to watch the open and let the day set up to gauge the control. If buyers step in down here we could see higher prices and in which case i will be looking for longs at my support levels. In the case of a bearish move I will not be looking for longs until we get down around 1313-1315 or the cvpoc at 1309-1311 area. 

End of day review 5-16-11 Monday

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) I was late coming into the morning session. ES opened below Fridays value and this brought in responsive buyers. The market moved up into Fridays value area and stalled at the globex highs area. We had a PB into my support area and it was a great place to get long. The market shot up and hit the next level above at 1337 where we had a small rotation back into the 1333.1335 level that was broken this morning. The market had another strong push above the IBH and trough the 1337-1338.50 level. Sellers were active at the 1341 level and the market pulled back and broke back into the IB. This was a warning sign that we could see a rotation back to the lows. We retraced back into the IBH and down we went for an almost complete rotation. The market bounced back up in the 50% area and the 1333-1335 level where sellers were active once again pushing ES down into the lows of the day and breaking the IBL. The day established value lower down with sellers in control closing the day at the lows. The vpoc shifted down from Fridays session.

(Trade plan) My trade plan was pretty much right on queue today. I was expecting responsive buyers to be active at the lows of the bigger range and that's exactly what we got. Buyers moved us back up into the recent range.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) I missed the action in the morning because of work but there were a few nice trades. 1^st was at 1331 on the pull back into my level and previous low of day. 2^nd After breaking the A period on the MP there was a little PB into the 1333.75 A period high. 3^rd was the retest of IBH after breaking back into the IB. And 4^th was selling the down trend line in a down trending afternoon. The ones with the black circles are the hypothetical trades.

(Actual)

1^st trade: I tried a long here at IBH looking for the market to continue higher. It was a good area to look for a long as long as we stayed above it. As soon as we broke below the IBH and had trouble getting back above it I should have bailed on the trade. I did take off one lot to hedge some risk and that was a good idea.

2^nd trade: I bought the 50% retrace looking for the market to still move back up. This trade ended up being a winner and I only kept my target at 2 points because that was my first target and in case we couldn’t get back above the IBH then it’s the best place to be flat.

3^rd Trade: market was moving lower and I was expecting the retest of the lows of the day. I used order flow to get in this trade and go with the momentum that came into the market.

4^th Trade: This trade was an impulse trade. I shouldn’t have taken it because I was trying to guess that the market was going higher so I tried to buy the little break above that swing high. But if the market was going to go up that was the place for the buyers to keep pushing. They didn’t and I was stopped out for -6 ticks. That was also the 50% retrace level of the bigger move down. It wasn’t a good place to try and get long at all because the market was trending lower most of the afternoon and with 50% right in front of me it was poor risk to reward on that trade. I deserved that one lol.

5^th Trade: The market was breaking down and I tried a short after it broke the trend line and the previous swing low area. I was almost 2 points up and I saw signs of a supply and demand shift so I bailed for BE on that one. I was looking for the market to follow through to the down side.

Conclusion of the day and thoughts going forward: I was really happy with my trading today. I feel like I’m finally starting to make the turn. I’m having more confidence in my trades now and I feel like I am better able to read the market. When you’re able to read the market you can look for trades to take. I spent a lot of time trying to just find set ups and all along I was missing what the markets were all about. It’s not about set ups it’s about context and price action. I’m eager to move forward and see what the rest of the week brings.

Grades:

Following my plans: A+

Following my rules: A+

Trade execution: C+

Pre market analysis 5-16-11 Monday

News: Empire state mfg. @ 8:30AM. Treasury international capital @ 9AM, Housing market index @10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) Friday was a selling day with value established lower from the previous day. We still managed to balance in the same area though. Globex placed value lower down on Fridays session giving us a bearish tone to the sentiment.

(Trade plan) With the bearish tone on the market and a bearish reaction to the econ release we could get a break lower out of the balance area. Were at the bottom of the balance are so i will be cautious trying to sell down here. Depending on the market's reaction on the open and the econ release i will determine if i want to get long down here. This area is where one should expect to see responsive buyers getting active for a move back up into value. Over all i will be looking to be a buyer at support and a seller at resistance areas on my chart. But will be cautious of a break below the 1327 level also globex lows. A break and hold below that could mean that we see lower prices over the next few days. If we bounce from there then we could trade back up into the range.

End of day review 5-13-11 Friday :)

Trade plan and Price action review: (Price action) ES opened in yesterday vpoc value area and we initially moved a little higher on the open and found sellers at the top of yesterdays range. ES moved lower and bounced off of the globex lows and my support level at 1343-1344. We bounced back up into the 1345.50-1346.50 level and rotated lower. Buyers were active at the 1339.50-1340.75 level and we got a strong bounce back above the globex lows and the 1343-1344 level. We had a small retrace and bounced again back into the 1345-1346 level and it was all downhill from there. We kept moving lower with small rotation at each level and then trend follow through. The selling picked up and we had exhaustion volume selling into the 1330.25-1331.50 level where we bounced and ranged for a bit.

(Trade plan) Although i was in the bullish camp this morning i was also expecting some down side action. I wasn't expecting this much but it didn't matter. I still had a plan for either way the market went. We did get the fast move down below the 1343 number. So trade plan looked good.

Trades review: (Hypothetical) 1st aggressive traders could have sold the move up into the yesterdays high range. 2nd there was a long at globex lows support at 9:55am but we had econ number release at same time. 3rd another long into the 1340.75 level at 10:10AM. 4th long at 10:30AM off of the FB of globex lows area. 5th If you were looking at the overnight action we had a 50% retrace at 1346.50 and i had level at the area as well for a PB in a down trend type move. 6th Selling the 1340.25 level after breaking in strong trade.

(Actual)

1^st trade: I was short at 1342.75 at 10:06 AM after the break below the globex low and level i had. Market hit my 2 point target but it didn't fill. I went to break even and was stopped for a flat trade. Good call because market steamed up.

2^nd trade: Was long at 1343.75 after the rush of buying and a retrace into the level i had there. I got out of one for 2 points and left the other for 1351 target to play the bullish macro structure. It ended up stopping me out for BE on second lot.

3rd Trade: I was long again at 1340.25 once again market hit my target but no fill so took a BE trade.

4th Trade: Wanted short at 13:25 pm at 1326.25. Boss called and had to leave computer. Nice trade tho...

Conclusion of the day/week and thoughts going forward: So i feel like today was one of my better days of trading. It sounds funny to say that because i wasn't up on the day at all. But i felt really good about my market read and my trade execution. The only problem with the 3 trades i took is i didn't get filled for my target of 2 points. On the trade i had extended target on i should have left it for 2-3 points. I was feeling a little ambitious there. I feel like im getting better at them two issues. I will keep doing the same routine i have been doing for the past few weeks. Next week i will concentrate on leaving my target at 2 points. The reason is that trading is a game of size not points. If i can consistently take 2 points on every trade i can increase my size. If i can get on a 4 lot in a short amount of time then them 2 points will add up quick. No reason to go for more than that. Ok till next week...

Grades:

Following my plans: A

Following my rules: A

Trade execution: A+

Pre market analysis 5-13-11 Friday :)

Blogger was down this morning so posting this late

News: Consumer price index @ 8:30AM, Consumer sentiment @10AM

Trade plan and Price action analysis: (Price action) So yesterdays price action was bullish as we were close to the bottom of the recent balance area. We have been trading in a balance area and have been rotating up and down. We are likely to break out of this area sooner or later, it's just a matter of time. (Globex) In the overnight session we have put in a pretty big range of almost 10 points. We rotated down to the 1343 cvpoc level and bounced up into the 1351-1353 level and have since traded down from there. We have CPI and consumer sentiment out today and this could give us a reason to see some action.

(Trade plan) We are in a ranging type market on the higher time frame and the market is just rotating up and down within that area. Yesterday the market shot up but value was stilled formed in the bigger value area not making any real progress. I'm still in the bullish camp and will be looking to be a buyer at support and also a seller at resistance. Globex formed value higher up on yesterday so over night sentiment is bullish. We have 1343 balance area vpoc and if we remain above that we could see higher prices up into the extremes of the bigger range. If we take out the globex highs i have strong resistance at 1356-1358 area and expect sellers to be active there on first test. If we break below the 1343 area we could see another fast move lower down into support areas below. I expect selling to shut off by 1327 area if we get there but that will be an extreme. The past few Fridays have been pretty slow so I'm expecting a move in the morning and then the market to shut off later in the day.