Pre market analysis 4-27-11 Wednesday

News: FOMC meeting announcement @ 12:30 PM

Trade plan: ES yesterday broke the top of the bigger balance area making new highs on the year. We spent the day establishing value above the 1337-1338 previous high of year. Globex has now traded in a range before the cash open. My expectation today is for ES to balance in a range before the FOMC release at 12:30PM. I will evaluate the reaction at that time to decide the direction i want to trade in. Over all ES is very bullish at the moment and buyers are in full control still. If the buyers can't manage to keep ES above the 1338 level we could see a FB type scenario and a possible retest of areas inside the range. I will be patient and follow my rules and if nothing sets up then i don't trade.

End of day review 4-26-11 Tuesday

The day gapped up above the previous 2 days balance and balanced in a range between my 2 levels. I can't remember why i didn't go long at support this morning but either way i didn't take the trade then ES took off to the upside breaking to new highs on the year. We didn't see a pullback until around 12 noon. So i waited for the PB to get to something strong and looked for a 1 min volume spike to get into the trade and that happened right at support so worked out well for 3 points. Over we spent the day establishing value above the recent balance area we have been in the past few weeks making new highs. Tomorrow i will be looking for longs to go with the move up but i need to see how globex trades over night.

Pre market analysis 4-26-11 Tuesday

News: Consumer confidence @ 10AM

Trade plan: Yesterday saw ES trade in a small range due to Europe being closed for a holiday.ES has been balancing in a range building acceptance at 1331.75 poc. WE are at the top of a bigger balance area and i could expect responsive sellers to be active up here. Although buyers are still in control. I will still be playing longs on PBs into support. I believe the bullish picture is still intact and that buyers will be active at every support level. If we break the highs of the year i will wait for a retest of the previous area before getting long and i am expecting sellers to be active at the 1344-1342 resistance area above. For shorts i need to see the market get tired of trying to move higher by putting in poor attempts to break the highs. Over all buyers are in control and i will only take shorts for quick trades into support targets.

End of day review 4-25-11 Monday

Europe was closed today and we saw ES trade in a small range with very slow choppy trade. ES pushed down into my 1327.50-1329.50 level where i tried for a long and was stopped out for - 6 ticks. The market reacted as i expected today by balancing in a range before and after the figure release. I was stopped out with a 6 tick stop and a 8 tick stop would have kept me in the trade. I think the slow choppy trade is what got me stopped out because that set up on any other day similar to this context would have worked out just fine. A little frustrating but i continue to move on. perhaps i should have had a 2 point stop. I don't see what else i could have done to make that trade profitable other than a bigger stop. I had well defined entry point in a good area of support with the buyers in control and at good support. perhaps my level was off a little bit. 1327.50 was the MCVPOC so maybe a test of this would have given a better entry point...

Pre market analysis Monday 4-25-11

News: New home sales @ 10AM

Trade plan: That was a nice long weekend. I really enjoyed getting away from the markets for a few days. ES shot up last week and consolidated the past few sessions. We are at the top of the bigger balance area and could expect responsive buyers to be active up here. I have a resistance level at 1334-1335.50 which is where globex highs made it to before ticking off a little bit. With only new home sales out today at 10 AM we may just balance before and after the release with a small reaction on the release. The reason is i believe that the housing market data is not on the forefront right now. If the numbers are really out of whack then we may get a bit more of a reaction. Over all i will be concentrating on buying support and selling resistance areas. Depending on the action i will be more inclined to get short up here and play as a responsive seller at the top of this range.